President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects have continued to improve following the Republican National Convention, JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic told investors on Monday.
“We currently believe that momentum in favor of Trump will continue, while the most investors are still positioned for a Biden win,” Kolanovic, the firm’s global head of macro quantitative and derivatives strategy, told clients in a note, according to CNBC. “The impact on sectors and factors (momentum vs value, cyclicals vs tech, ESG) could be dramatic and investment portfolios should adjust for a potential Trump re-election.”
He added that "The impact of protest violence on the 2020 elections" could cause a five to 10 percentage point increase in polls towards Republicans, a bump which "may be even larger," due to "the broad online availability of violent footage (everybody can record and share in real time), but also the ability to influence social media to amplify this message."
Kolanovic also notes that despite most polls showing a strong lead for Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden, a recent survey found that about one-in-10 Trump-supporting voters are likely to lie about their preference in polls, and that only one-in-20 Biden supporters said the same.
"We find that this 'cancel culture' effect could artificially skew polls in favor of Biden by 5-6%," he wrote.
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