Tags: house | senate | democrats | republicans | 2018 midterms

WaPo: Dems Have Better Shot to Take House Than Senate in '18

WaPo: Dems Have Better Shot to Take House Than Senate in '18
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. (Andrew Harnik/AP)

Monday, 18 December 2017 05:57 PM

There is a better chance Democrats could retake the majority in the House than win a Senate majority in next year's midterm elections, The Washington Post analysis showed.

In the analysis posted Monday, the Post noted Doug Jones' special Senate election seat in Alabama puts the GOP-Democratic split at 51-49 — including the two Independents who vote with the Democrats.

To retake the Senate, the Democrats would have to swing two Republican seats up for election while holding all of their own.

Assuming Democrats hold all the seats currently rated by the Cook Political Report as solidly, likely, or leaning Democratic, and Republicans win the five seats that are rated solidly GOP, what is left are three Republican toss-up seats — including Nevada, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016, the analysis noted.

Democrats would need to win two of those three to take a majority — plus hold all of theirs, including seats in Indiana, Missouri, and West Virginia, all of which went for President Donald Trump, the analysis showed.

On the House side, the analysis found Democrats would need to gain 24 seats from the Republicans to control the chamber. The GOP has 25 seats so far for which the incumbent will not run.

Cook estimates there are 17 Republican and four Democratic seats that are toss-ups — or likely to switch parties. Assuming the Democrats held all of their seats and took all of the Republican seats in play, that is a gain of 17.

If they further win all of the seats that lean Republican, and hold their own, the total Democratic gain shifts to 39 — enough to swing the chamber.

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It might be possible for the Democrats to regain control of the House of Representatives during the 2018 midterm elections instead of overtaking Republicans' narrow 51-49 edge in the Senate, according to The Washington Post analysis.
house, senate, democrats, republicans, 2018 midterms
Monday, 18 December 2017 05:57 PM
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