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WSJ: Will Hillary's Base Look More Like Obama's or Bill's?

Image: WSJ: Will Hillary's Base Look More Like Obama's or Bill's?
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By    |   Friday, 24 Apr 2015 11:52 AM

While both President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton won their respective elections, they did so with very different looking electoral maps, which raises questions about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's electoral path to victory.

Traditional blue states such as California and those in the Northeast have remained largely the same politically between 1996 and 2012.  But while Clinton won Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia,  Obama won states such as Virginia and Colorado, The Wall Street Journal is reporting. 

An analysis of the data in the two elections raises some questions about what Hillary Clinton will have to do to win in 2016.

Almost half the 890 counties that Clinton won in 1996, but were lost by Obama in 2012, have populations that are made up of non-Hispanic whites by more than 90 percent. By comparison, 33 of the 58 counties that Obama won on his way to the presidency, but Clinton didn't, are below the average for their non-Hispanic white populations.

The Journal asks if these differing paths to victory are due to Obama being the first black president, and asks if Hillary Clinton could win some of those counties previously won by her husband?

Obama managed to win a larger share of better educated voters in those 58 counties, while Clinton's 890 counties were 97 percent below the national average for college graduates, and they also have lower income levels.

Could those lower educated voters still be available for Mrs. Clinton to win in 2016, especially with her populist message?

In addition, could she win some of the rural counties that her husband won, but were lost by Obama?

This question stems from the fact that Obama won urban counties such as Dallas, Houston, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Orlando and San Diego, as well as some large suburban counties.

The Journal reports that the answers to these questions will depend on what turns out to be  driving these demographic and political shifts — and the 2016 election may be able to provide some answers.

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Politics
While both President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton won their respective elections, they did so with very different looking electoral maps, which raises questions about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's electoral path to victory.
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, electoral map, states
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2015-52-24
Friday, 24 Apr 2015 11:52 AM
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