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Politico's Ben White: Trump Will Have Goldwater-Style Defeat

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By    |   Saturday, 30 Apr 2016 12:04 PM

Donald Trump could become the "most toxic Republican nominee" since Barry Goldwater, and will also likely face a defeat like the 1964 candidate did, Politico's Ben White writes in an opinion piece Saturday.

"There is very little reason to think the current picture — a very big Clinton win — will change very much between now and November," White, who is Politico's chief economic correspondent and a CNBC contributor, writes for CNBC.

"The GOP with Trump on the top of the ticket will probably go down to a Goldwater-type defeat and once again the Republican Party will have to try and reinvent itself at the presidential level."

For one, Trump supporters believe Trump could swing blue states such as Massachusetts, New York, and California away from Clinton. But Trump's negative personal ratings overall are about 10 points higher than Clinton's.

Clinton's hold on women, though could put red states into play. She leads Trump in Arizona, where she got about the same amount of votes in the primary. She got more votes in Georgia, Louisiana, and Arkansas, and even Bernie Sanders got more votes than Trump. Overall, Clinton has 12 million primary votes, compared to 10 million for Trump.

Even worse for Trump, though, is the fact that 70 percent of women have a negative view of Trump, compared to 45 percent for Clinton, and in hypothetical match-ups, Clinton is ahead of Trump by 58 to 31 percent.

In the 2012 race, President Barack Obama won 12 percent of the female vote, with women accounting for 53 percent of the overall electorate, and if Clinton doubles that gap, Trump's lead by white males would not matter.

But instead of working to narrow that gap, Trump has accused Clinton of playing the "woman card," giving her camp ammunition against him in the demographic where he can't afford losing votes.

In addition, he won large in primaries in several blue states, including New York, but there, he won 500,000 votes compared to one million for Clinton, so he probably won't be turning that state red, says White.

And even if he wins California's primary by a large margin, Clinton leads him by 30 points there.

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Politics
Donald Trump could become the most toxic Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater, and will also likely face a defeat like the 1964 candidate did, Politico's Ben White writes in an opinion piece Saturday.
Goldwater, defeat, Election, Clinton, Trump
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2016-04-30
Saturday, 30 Apr 2016 12:04 PM
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