Tags: 2020 Elections | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton | Joe Biden | Polls | fivethirtyeight | white voters

FiveThirtyEight: Trump's Numbers With White Voters Dropping

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By    |   Monday, 19 October 2020 08:13 AM

President Donald Trump is losing support among white voters to Democrat nominee Joe Biden but is gaining ground with Black and Hispanic voters, according to data from polling over the past month. 

Polls show Biden has more support than 2016 Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton did among white voters overall, especially among women, older voters, and voters without a four-year college degree, reports FiveThirtyEight

Meanwhile, Trump has gained ground since the last election among college-educated white voters and with people of color, especially younger Black and Hispanic voters, reports FiveThirtyEight, which compared data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to 2020 data from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape polling that was conducted over the past month. 

CCES noted that white voters made up more than 7 out of 10 voters in 2016, meaning large shifts could change the electoral calculus. With Trump's edge with white voters being about half of what it was in 2016, that could affect the eventual winner of the Electoral College vote, as white voters are overrepresented in states that could determine the electoral winner. 

In 2016, Clinton lost among white voters without a college degree by more than 20 points. But now, Biden is behind by 12 points with this group in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. Meanwhile, white women backed Trump over Clinton in 2016, but now they favor Biden by 6 points.

Support for Trump has also taken a drastic hit among older white voters. He won among voters age 45 or older by more than 20 points in 2016 but now leads by just 4 points. 

White men are still backing Trump by about 20 points, according to the surveys, and the president's support is growing among college-educated white voters, a group he lost by more than 10 points in 2016. 

Trump is polling at about 49% among white college-educated voters, which could help him hold onto key battleground states such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The polls also show that older Black voters will likely vote for Biden, but support for Trump among Black voters ages 18-44 is now at 21%, up from 10% in 2016. Trump is also now attracting 35% of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22% backing him in 2016. 

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Politics
President Donald Trump is losing support among white voters to Democrat nominee Joe Biden but is gaining ground with Black and Hispanic voters, according to data from polling over the past month. Polls show Biden has more support than 2016 Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton...
fivethirtyeight, white voters, age, education, race
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2020-13-19
Monday, 19 October 2020 08:13 AM
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