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Wash Post: Trump Must Raise Favorability Like Bush Did in 2004

Image: Wash Post: Trump Must Raise Favorability Like Bush Did in 2004
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By    |   Monday, 09 May 2016 06:05 PM

If Donald Trump hopes to win the popular vote in November he has to take on the tough task of raising his favorability numbers much as George W. Bush did in the 2004 election, writes Philip Bump at The Washington Post's "The Fix" blog.

While Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and Hillary Clinton, expected to win the Democratic nomination, both have negative favorability numbers, Bump says Clinton is besting Trump in net favorability because of Trump's bad numbers with women and non-white voters.

And Trump's numbers with Republicans are worse than Clinton's numbers with Democrats.

"This suggests, based solely on this metric, that Clinton is better positioned than Trump," Bump says, but adds, "those numbers are not as static as they may seem."

Plotting favorability numbers in every presidential election since 1992, Bump shows that the two major party candidates' favorability ratings fluctuated throughout the race, and that it was the ratings closest to the election that actually predicted the outcome.

"Trump's favorability has been compared to W.'s in 2004," Bump writes. "Bush's unfavorability numbers that year were much worse than John Kerry's at this point. That contest was very different than this one for a lot of reasons, but Bush's unpopularity didn't cost him reelection."

2004 was the only year since 1992 when the candidate with the highest favorability right before the election lost the popular vote.

One way Bump suggests Trump can overcome his current deficit: "If Republicans finally embrace Donald Trump."

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If Donald Trump hopes to win the popular vote in November he has to take on the tough task of raising his favorability numbers much as George W. Bush did in the 2004 election, writes Philip Bump at The Washington Post's "The Fix" blog.
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2016-05-09
Monday, 09 May 2016 06:05 PM
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