Retired Air Force fighter pilot Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., finds herself down 5 points in a 2020 poll to retired astronaut, gun control advocate, and Democrat Mark Kelly.
The results of the OH Predictive Insights survey, which were released to The Hill, show Kelly with 46% support to McSally's 41%.
The latest figures indicate a notable change in the race. In two polls conducted by OH Predictive Insights earlier this year, McSally led by 2 points (in February) and 1 point (in May).
A former member of the House, McSally lost her bid to win a Senate seat in last year's midterm election. However, she was appointed to replace the late Sen. John McCain, who died one year ago after a battle with brain cancer.
McSally and Kelly are running to serve out the remainder of McCain's six-year term, which ends in 2022.
McSally, however, appears to be on an uphill battle. The latest figures from OH Predictive Insights show she trails Kelly by 9 points in the all-important Maricopa County, a county she lost in 2018 en route to losing the election.
"Maricopa County is the problem," said Republican pollster Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights. McSally "had a problem in the previous poll where she was down five, and now she's down nine."
Kelly was also a military pilot, serving in the Navy before becoming a NASA astronaut. He is married to former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who survived a 2011 assassination attempt by a man armed with a handgun.
The OH Predictive Insights poll included 600 likely Arizona voters from Aug. 13-14. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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