A new study concludes that both Republicans and Democrats should worry about the 2020 presidential election.
According to political analysis site FiveThirtyEight, a projection of the voting population shows demographic problems for Republicans and Electoral College problems for Democrats in the race.
The study by the Bipartisan Policy Center, Brookings Institution, Center for American Progress and the Public Religion Research Institute, crunched numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau and other data and found the eligible voting population in 2020 break down like this:
- 44 percent white people without college degrees (down from 46 percent in 2016)1
- 23 percent white people with college degrees (compared to 22 percent in 2016)
- 13 percent black people (12 percent in 2016)
- 13 percent Latinos (12 percent in 2016)
- 8 percent people who are either Asian or another race or ethnicity that is not black, white or Latino (7 percent in 2016)
"Those numbers are good for Democrats and bad for Republicans in the sense that the parts of the electorate that are expected to increase by 2020 (non-whites and white people with college degrees) are generally much more supportive of Democrats," FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. and Dhrumil Mehta write.
But, there are problems for Democrats, too, they say.
"The population of eligible voters is less diverse than the U.S. population overall … In 2020, almost half the electorate (44 percent of voters) is projected to belong to a demographic (white and working class) that now overwhelmingly backs Republicans," Bacon and Mehta write.
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