Tags: MidPoint | John Casey | winter storm | Juno | weather forecasting

Climate Expert: No Apology Required for Winter Forecast

By    |   Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015 03:01 PM

Forecasters should not be seeking forgiveness just because winter storm Juno packed less of a punch than many predicted, climate expert and global warming skeptic John L. Casey told "MidPoint" host Ed Berliner on Newsmax TV Tuesday.

As Northeasterners exhale following Juno's downgrade, there's some seasonal fury at forecasters for making calls that led to pre-emptive shutdowns of schools, businesses and mass transit lines from New Jersey to Maine.

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But Juno was no lightweight, even though less than advertised, said Casey, president of the Space and Science Research Corporation and a former White House national space policy adviser

"It could have been much worse for states inland," he said. "However, we need to remember that Massachusetts and Rhode Island are still getting pounded heavily with high winds, [and] snow, and we have yet to hear stories from Maine.

"This isn't over by a long shot," said Casey. "In fact, according to the records, we already have proved this is certainly a top-10 snow event for the Boston area since records going back to 1935. This is still a major snowstorm."

The author of the controversial book "Dark Winter: How The Sun Is Causing a 30-Year Cold Spell", Casey also said that weather modelers work with the best equipment they have, and that public safety officials are right to be cautious even as they expect some observational common sense from their constituents.

"We should always appreciate the politicians and community leaders who err on the side of caution," said Casey. "You cannot take that risk with people's lives."

Casey said on all four major climate weather models used to project Juno's path, "it was looking pretty grim right up until the last moment, and then the storm's center shifted slightly enough to spare New York City."

He added that Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maine "are still undergoing the very strong effects of a storm which produced up to 75-mile-per-hour winds" and more than 30 inches of snow west of Boston.

Casey said that perfect, foolproof forecasting is still a ways off.

"We're getting close to 100 percent, but that last 10 percent is going to be a long time off in the future," and will require hundreds of millions of dollars in new surface and satellite tracking gear.

In the meantime, he said, the apology tweeted by forecaster Gary Szatkowski of the National Weather Service was "totally unnecessary."
"Everyone takes the status of modern weather forecasting and storm forecasting with a small grain of salt," said Casey.

"I'm sure most folks in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are not asking for any apologies right now as they dig out from 20 to 30 inches of snow in 15 degree temperatures," he said.

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Forecasters should not be seeking forgiveness just because winter storm Juno packed less of a punch than many predicted, climate expert and global warming skeptic John L. Casey told "MidPoint" host Ed Berliner on Newsmax TV Tuesday.
John Casey, winter storm, Juno, weather forecasting
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2015-01-27
Tuesday, 27 Jan 2015 03:01 PM
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