Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in all seven crucial swing states, according to a recent YouGov poll conducted for The Times and SAY24, a collaborative project by Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities, Breitbart reported.
Between July 4 and 12, 2024, YouGov surveyed voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The results indicate significant challenges for Biden's reelection campaign as he trails Trump in these pivotal states. This marks a substantial decline from Biden's standing in these states in March and highlights his uphill battle to secure a second term.
Voter sentiment across these states reflects a lack of confidence in Biden's chances of winning. In none of the surveyed states did most voters believe that Biden was more likely to win than Trump.
Economic pessimism appears to be a key hurdle for Biden, with a significant majority of registered voters in each state rating the national economy as fair or poor. Similar negative sentiments are held regarding their state's economy, with more voters believing economic conditions are deteriorating rather than improving.
However, the poll offered a glimmer of hope for Democrats, showing their Senate candidates outperforming Biden in the same states. This year, there are critical Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Each state currently has a Democrat senator, with two open races and three seats defended by incumbents. In each state, Democrat candidates are leading their Republican opponents by at least seven points, indicating stronger support at the Senate level than for the presidency.
The YouGov surveys had a sample size of 1,000 registered voters per state, except for Arizona, Wisconsin (900), and Nevada (800), with margins of error ranging between 3 and 5 percent.
These findings align with a June Emerson poll, which also showed Trump leading in every swing state by margins ranging from one to four points, except in Minnesota, where the candidates were tied. The June Emerson poll sampled 1,000 registered voters from June 12-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, according to Emerson's results reported by Breitbart:
- Arizona: 47% Trump (+4), 43% Biden
- Georgia: 45% Trump (+4), 41% Biden
- Michigan: 46% Trump (+1), 45% Biden
- Minnesota: 45% Trump, 45% Biden
- Nevada: 46% Trump (+2), 43% Biden
- Pennsylvania: 47% Trump (+2), 45% Biden
- Wisconsin: 47% Trump (+3), 44% Biden
Jim Thomas ✉
Jim Thomas is a writer based in Indiana. He holds a bachelor's degree in Political Science, a law degree from U.I.C. Law School, and has practiced law for more than 20 years.
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