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Gorka: Putin Will Not Stop With Ukraine

Gorka: Putin Will Not Stop With Ukraine
(ALEXANDR DEMYANCHUK/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

By    |   Monday, 16 May 2022 12:03 PM EDT

Disinformation is rife at a time of war.

This is true in every conflict, including the current war in Ukraine. In order to slice through the “fog of war" as much as possible, I reached out to one the world’s greatest Kremlinologists, a man I have known since my time serving in the British Territorial Army.

What follows is she essential knowledge you need to be apprised of when it comes to the greatest conflict on the Eurasian landmass since the end of World War II.

It is unclassified, but since my friend is advising Western governments at this time, his identity has to remain confidential.

I remain indebted to him for his gracious sharing of this knowledge.

The War So Far

Ukrainian forces can no longer expect such easy targets as they have been encountering.

The appointment of General Dvornikov as the first overall Russian commander-in-chief of the operation is clearly intended to change Russia’s fortunes.

Mutinies in several Russian units and a failure to recruit replacement troops as well as serving personnel refusing to deploy are evidence of a widespread and serious lack of morale and motivation.

However, despite its poor performance in many areas, the Russian military still retains some advantage over the Ukrainians.

It can still draw on more heavy firepower, ammunition and reserves.

It still has a formidable air defense capability and we are probably going to see Gen Dvornikov falling back on a plan that looks a great deal more like classic Soviet offensive doctrine, or “attrition," heavy artillery barrages followed by rapid tank advance and assaulting Ukrainian defense from the flank.

The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, has run low on fuel, weapons and ammunition.

The Russians have understood Ukraine’s problems and are now targeting fuel dumps and military depots.

Much of the Ukrainian Army on the front line is suffering from fatigue.

Neither side, therefore, can afford to be confident about the outcome of the impending battle, which is likely to be decided by the army which is more competent at the operational level, meaning above just localized tactical success.

What Should the West Do?

The Ukrainian military now urgently needs advanced weapons such as drones, heavy weapons and ammunition, plus transport vehicles of all types to improve mobility and enable them to continue to fight.

Additionally Kiev needs large-scale help to train their volunteers into effective reserve units ideally in neighboring (NATO) countries.

It is still taking too long to get weapons into Ukraine and the numbers being promised are far, far fewer than what are needed.

Moscow’s Mindset

Understanding Putin’s mindset is crucial: His sacking or arrest of several senior commanders, including the Admiral of the Black Sea Fleet, and his incarceration of a very senior FSB Intelligence general are evidence of his determination to win the war which he started.

This mission, for Putin, has the status of a crusade or jihad.

His vision of Ukraine’ importance to Russia’s future is literally an article of faith.

This is a fight to the death as far as the Kremlin is concerned and therefore the atrocities we have seen so far are likely to continue. (More than 30,000 Ukrainians have been deported from Mariupol alone to camps in Donetsk and in Russia itself).

His worldview means that it will be impossible to reason with Putin and to find any grounds for a sustainable peace agreement or compromise.

From Putin’s perspective, there can be no compromise with heresy.

For Putin this is a global war between Western democracy and autarchy. We need to understand this and rediscover the art of grand strategy.

We must not lose sight of the wider war being waged against us, and we must fight and win this war too.

If we do not do that decisively, Russia will continue to be an active threat and will not stop with Ukraine.

The Kremlin has made it clear that this is a fight to the finish.

Putin is at war with us, whether we like it or not.

Ukraine will only be the first domino to fall.

Sebastian Gorka Ph.D., is host of Newsmax’s "Gorka Reality Check," a former strategist for President Donald Trump, and author of “The War for America’s Soul."

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


Newsfront
Disinformation is rife at a time of war.This is true in every conflict, including the current war in Ukraine. In order to slice through the "fog of war" as much as possible, I reached out to one the world's greatest Kremlinologists, a man I have known since my time serving...
putin, ukraine, russia
701
2022-03-16
Monday, 16 May 2022 12:03 PM
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