Tags: Climate Change | Global Warming | predictions | estimates | weather | science

Study: Global Warming Likely to Be More Severe Than Expected

Image: Study: Global Warming Likely to Be More Severe Than Expected
(AP)

By    |   Wednesday, 06 December 2017 11:34 PM

Worst-case global warming predictions are the most accurate, say climate experts in a new study, according to The Washington Post.

"Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 percent chance that global warming will exceed 4C by the end of this century," said Dr. Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, Calif.

Past estimates placed it at 62 percent.

Caldeira and Patrick Brown co-authored the study, "Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget," published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.

Scientists have produced dozens of climate models projecting a range of different global warming outcomes resulting from increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Brown and Caldeira sought to resolve the predictions, which ranged from a 3.2 Celsius increase to a 5.9 Celsius increase. Their conclusion was models with higher estimates were likely to be more accurate.

"Our results suggest that it doesn't make sense to dismiss the most-severe global warming projections based on the fact that climate models are imperfect in their simulation of the current climate," Brown said. "On the contrary, if anything, we are showing that model shortcomings can be used to dismiss the least-severe projections."

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Climate experts in a new study estimate the worst-case global warming predictions are the most accurate, The Washington Post reported.
predictions, estimates, weather, science
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2017-34-06
Wednesday, 06 December 2017 11:34 PM
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