Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday amended their earlier guidance and are now predicting an "above normal" Atlantic hurricane season.

Citing record-warm, sea-surface temperatures and other conditions, NOAA increased the likelihood of an above normal season to 60%, up from 40% in May.

"The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures," Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center, said in NOAA's release.

"Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season."

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

NOAA's revised outlook forecasts a total of 14 to 21 named storms, with two to five of those major hurricanes — winds of 111 mph or greater. The season has produced four named storms already. Emily would be the next named storm.

NOAA said it has 70% confidence in those new ranges. However, NOAA in May said it had 70% confidence in its guidance then.

"A lot of the predictions from May did not forecast the continuation of record and warm sea surface temperatures. It's very rare for most models to forecast continuations of records," Rosencrans told reporters on Thursday.

A normal hurricane season is 14 named storms, exactly the number experienced in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

There were 21 named storms in 2021 and 30 in 2020.

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