NewsMax/Zogby Poll: Romney Leads in Iowa

UTICA, New York – While his national polling numbers remain lower than other Republican presidential contenders, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has established a solid lead in the key first caucus state of Iowa, a fresh NewsMax/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Romney now leads among likely Republican caucus–goers in Iowa with 33% support, edging his nearest competitor – former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani – by 19 points. The survey comes just two weeks after the Ames Straw Poll in north central Iowa, where Romney swept to an easy victory over a field that did not include other top competitors, including Giuliani, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, or Arizona Sen. John McCain.

While Giuliani fell four points from 18% to 14% since the last Zogby state survey in May, Thompson, who will reportedly enter the race officially just after Labor Day, increased his support to 12%, locking up the third–place slot in the GOP race.

NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Poll
Republicans	Aug. 17th	May 15	March 28	Jan. 16
Romney	33%	19%	11%	5%
Giuliani	14%	18%	25%	19%
Fred Thompson	12%	9%	7%	-
Huckabee	8%	2%	2%	1%
McCain	6%	18%	19%	17%
Tommy Thompson	-	4%	5%	1%
Brownback	4%	2%	3%	1%
Tancredo	3%	3%	1%	2%
Paul	3%	1%	1%	1%
Hunter	1%	1%	1%	1%
Someone else	2%	3%	4%	1%
Not sure	14%	22%	22%	22%

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee jumped to 8% in the survey, passing McCain on the strength of recent strong debate performances and a good showing in the Iowa straw poll. McCain has slipped from a solid second place in March all the way to fifth now, having lost two–thirds of his support since May. His campaign misfortune here mirrors his political tailspin nationally.

The Newsmax/Zogby telephone survey, conducted August 17–18, 2007, included 487 likely Republican caucus–goers in Iowa and carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points.

Romney's strength crosses almost all age demographics. He leads among all age categories except those aged 18–24, where Giuliani is favored by the GOPers. The older the respondent, the more likely they are to support Romney, including those in the two key demographic groups. Among those aged 35–54, he holds an 11–point lead over Giuliani with Thompson finishing third, and he leads by 27 points over Thompson among those Iowa Republicans aged 55–69.

More GOP likely caucus–goers than not said they think the recent Ames Straw Poll is a good indicator of how the caucus – now scheduled for January – will turn out. While 47% said it is a good indicator, 43% said it will have no impact on the caucuses. Another 10% were unsure. Women were somewhat more likely than men to say it was a good indicator of the outcome of the caucuses.

Asked whether they believed the Republican candidate for president should generally carry on with the foreign and domestic policies of George W. Bush, 67% agreed he should, while 28% disagreed with that idea. The more conservative the respondent, the more likely they were to agree that the course set by Bush should be followed. However, older respondents were not so sure. Those aged 65 and older were somewhat less likely than younger respondents to agree.

While he lags well behind Romney overall, Giuliani is still seen as the go–to guy on terrorism, the poll showed. Asked which Republican presidential candidate is best suited to deal with another terror attack launched by Osama bin Laden against the U.S., 34% favored Giuliani, while 16% favored Romney. In third place on this question was McCain at 15%, and Thompson was trusted most by 8% to best deal with another terror attack. Giuliani's leadership over his rivals on this question cut across every demographic group.

Editor's note:
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