The voter optimism of the past few months has stalled in the new national poll of 1,000 likely voters that we posted this week and may once again be headed in the wrong direction.
Over the past few months, more and more voters thought that the US was headed in the right direction, but this month the wrong track exceeded right direction 48% to 47%.
This perception is totally polarized by politics.
Joe Biden’s 2020 voters say the country is headed in the right direction 79% to 16%, but Trump 2020 voters say that the US is on the wrong track 84% to 13%.
The same is true by party and ideology.
Democrats and liberals say that we’re headed in the right direction 80%-15% and 75%-20%, respectively.
In contrast Republicans and conservatives say that we’re on the wrong track 78%-20% and 79%-19%, respectively.
But, in the middle, pessimism may be helping Republicans as the undecided voters for Congress say that the US is on the wrong track 47%-33%; independents 55%-39% and suburban voters 53%-44% also say wrong track.
With the right direction stalled and wrong track growing again, President Biden’s job approval is stuck, too.
Last month, Biden’s job approval was 56% to 43% disapprove.
This month, it’s approve 55% to disapprove 44%. Similarly Biden’s favorable to unfavorable rating is 54% to 45%.
These are pretty high negatives for a president who gets overwhelmingly positive media coverage.
Although we polled right before Vice President Kamala Harris made her long awaited trip to the Southern U.S. border, Harris’ favorable to unfavorable rating remains polarized with exactly the same 47% to 48% rating that she had last month.
Independents 44%-48%, white voters 37%-59%, married voters 44%-53%, suburban voters 45%-51% and even women 46%-49% give Harris net negative ratings and do not like her.
Last month, 64% of all voters thought that with Joe Biden being 78 years old and 82 at the end of his term, they said it was likely that Kamala Harris will be President before the end of Joe Biden’s term.
This month, it’s virtually the same at 63% saying it’s likely that Harris will become the President before the end of Biden’s 4 year term. This includes 50% of Biden voters and 56% among Democrats.
If Biden does not run again in 2024, Kamala Harris remains the frontrunner among Democratic primary voters at 31% which is down from 35% last month, while Michelle Obama has risen from 16% to 19% this month.
All other Democrats are 5% or less.
In contrast former President Trump holds his strong, solid Republican base of support:
- 72% of all Republicans want to see Donald Trump run for President again in 2024.
- 80% of Republican primary voters, including independents who vote in Republican primaries, would support President Trump for the Republican nomination if he ran again in 2024.
- 84%-12%, Republican primary voters, again including those independents who vote in Republican primaries, would vote for him in the 2024 general election.
- If the primary becomes a crowded field with 15 candidates, Trump obliterates the field with 55% of all votes and no one else gets double digits. Ron DeSantis, who says he won’t run against Trump, gets 9%, Mike Pence 8%, Ted Cruz and Candace Owens get 4% each, Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney get 3% each and 7 others get 1% each.
If President Trump decides not to run in 2024, it’s a very different race with Governor DeSantis growing to 24% of the vote, Mike Pence at 19%, Donald Trump, Jr. 15%, Ted Cruz 6%, Mitt Romney 5%, Nikki Haley 4%, Ivanka Trump 4%, Candace Owens 3%, Marco Rubio and Liz Cheney at 2% each and 6 others at 1%.
In a 2024 Presidential matchup between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, Trump leads 49% to 45% - the same as he did last month.
Trump gets most of the Trump 2020 voters 91%-4%, but he also gets 11% of the Biden 2020 voters, while Harris gets 84% among Biden voters.
Trump also wins among independents 46%-43%, white voters 61%-34%, married voters 59%-37%, suburban voters 51%-44% and ties Harris among women 47%-47%.
In other good signs for Republicans for 2022, Speaker Pelosi has a very high 58% unfavorable rating to a mere 33% favorable rating.
Senate Leader Schumer remains a net negative - 33% favorable to 43% unfavorable. Republicans also hold their 1 point generic ballot lead for Congress 47% to 46% Democratic.
On the issues, the majority of voters continue to prefer free market capitalism 63% over big government socialism 17%.
Almost half the voters, 48%, favor smaller government with fewer services, while 37% prefer larger government with more services.
The number of voters who say the country is in a recession has fallen to 48%, while 44% say we are not in recession. Half the voters, 50% say that the economy is getting better, while only 41% say it’s getting worse.
In questions sponsored by the Media Research Center, that are very relevant, in the current national debate by the Democrats to pass a national voter law to override state election integrity laws, only 17% say that asking voters for a valid photo ID when voting is unreasonable and a form of voter suppression, while 78% of all voters say it is reasonable and is a valid method of ensuring election integrity.
African American voters say that it is reasonable 72%-21%. Hispanic voters agree that it’s reasonable 73%-21%.
In a lesser publicized issue in the Democrats proposed new federal election law for taxpayer funding of campaigns, 77% of all voters think candidates should pay for their campaigns with money they raise on their own, while only 15% think that the federal government should provide politicians with the majority of money needed to fund political campaigns.
Democratic voters even say they should raise their own money 69%-22% and so do liberals 68%-25%.
Regarding lifetime employment for tenured college professors, the majority of voters, 82%, think universities and colleges should either abolish tenure, 35%, or limit tenure by renewing it every few years, 47%. Only 11% favor lifetime tenure.
When asked about President Biden’s opinion that Britain leaving the European Union endangers the Irish Peace Agreement, most American voters, 58%, think that President Biden should not be injecting his opinion in this British issue while the UK still supports the Irish peace deal. Only 29% agreed with Biden.
Finally, the majority of voters, 56%, disapprove of any decision by Congress to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal, which gives Iran billions in sanction relief, bars American nuclear inspections and allows Iran to enrich uranium.
Only 30% approved. Democrats approved 49%-35%, but independents disapproved 61%-25% and Republicans disapproved 75%-15%.
To see methodology and complete polling results, please click here.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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