Israeli intelligence suggests that Iran will have enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb by the end of this year after the country decided to ignore restrictions imposed by the 2015 nuclear deal.
Haaretz reports that the Israeli Defense Forces estimate that Tehran will need an additional two years to develop a missile that is able to carry a nuclear warhead. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, had Iran agree to limit its enrichment capacity, the level of enrichment, and its stock of enriched material. However, President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the agreement in May 2018 and its recent killing of an Iranian general has led the country to renew its enrichment efforts.
Israeli intelligence evaluations state that Iran will have 40 kilograms of 90% enriched uranium by the end of the year, enough for one nuclear bomb. From this information, they estimate that Iran is at about 4% enrichment right now and will hit 20% halfway through the year, which is about 70% of the process to make a nuclear bomb.
"We understand that the possibility of reaching a conflict or more than that against Iran is not an unreasonable one," IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi said last month. "Iran, despite the nuclear program's restrictions, continues to produce missiles coming into our territory and has doubled its enriched uranium."
He added, "As long as there is no response to the expansion of the nuclear program, at some point it may leave the realm of strategic dialogue and move to a real capability, that from now on a bomb can be built."
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