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NYT: Hillary Clinton Won't Win in a Landslide

Image: NYT: Hillary Clinton Won't Win in a Landslide
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By    |   Tuesday, 23 Aug 2016 05:25 PM

Hillary Clinton won't come anywhere near a landslide victory despite Donald Trump's slide in the polls and her own double digit lead in some swing states — the nation is simply too polarized, according to the New York Times

According to the Times, it's been 32 years since President Ronald Reagan crushed his Democratic rival Walter Mondale by 18 points in 1984, and it's unlikely any 21st century candidate will rally the 60-plus point majorities that put Franklin D. Roosevelt into office in 1936, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Richard Nixon in 1972.

"The biggest difference between today and say, 1936 or 1964, is the composition of the two parties," Jonathan Darman, author of the book "Landslide: LBJ and Ronald Reagan at the Dawn of a New America," tells the Times.

"The Republican and Democratic parties were much more heterogeneous than the parties we have today," he added. "Party identification had a lot more to do with regional ties and family traditions than ideology."

Case in point: 90 percent of Republicans and two-thirds of independents see Clinton unfavorably, according to the latest Marist poll.  

According to the Times, third-party candidates, who are nearing 15 percent of the vote total, also are contributing to Clinton's inability to break the 50 percent threshold in most national polls.

Amy Mitchell, director of journalism research at Pew Research Center, tells the Times about 20 percent of voters now hold political beliefs that place them at the ideological poles of their respective parties — a number that doubled from 2004 to 2014.

That level of polarization could fuel a a "curious electoral phenomenon," the Times reports.

"If it becomes a 'free vote,' I think that could be one of her problems," Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster, tells the Times. "If it looks all too easy and all too comfortable, there may be voters who will say, 'I don't want her to win by a landslide,'" fueling a protest vote against her.

According to the Times, this year's election looks like the 1992 race that sent Bill Clinton to the White House the first time; voters dissatisfied with President George Bush flocked to the independent Ross Perot, and neither Bush nor Clinton came close to a majority.

The polarization doesn't bode well for Clinton even if she wins.

"A mandate is some kind of issue platform that you have advocated that is the basis of your victory," Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, tells the Times.

"Not fear of the person who got beaten, which I think is the prime motivator of the Clinton people: the fear of Trump. The same thing can be said for Trump voters: fear of Clinton."

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Hillary Clinton won't come anywhere near a landslide victory despite Donald Trump's slide in the polls and her own double digit lead in some swing states - the nation is simply too polarized, according to the New York Times.
hillary clinton, donald trump, landslide, victory, votes
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2016-25-23
Tuesday, 23 Aug 2016 05:25 PM
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