Emerson Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Swing States, Nationally

Former President Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden nationally and in more than half a dozen battleground states, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling released on Thursday.

The poll, which was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation and conducted just days after the unsuccessful attempt on the former president’s life at a rally in Pennsylvania, found that Trump leads Biden nationally among registered voters, though neither holds a majority. 

• Trump: 46%
• Biden: 42%
• Undecided: 12%

Emerson notes that a poll conducted earlier this month showed Biden with slightly more support, at 44%, compared to Trump’s 46%.

Trump retains the lead over Biden nationally even with third-party candidates included.

• Trump: 44%
• Biden: 38%
• Other: 8.4%

“Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

Trump also holds the lead over Biden in seven battleground states, and Emerson notes that the former president has either maintained or extended his lead in both the national poll and in six of the seven swing states.

• Arizona: Trump 46%, Biden 36%, other 8.2% 
• Georgia: Trump 44%, Biden 39%, other 9.3%
• Michigan: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other 8.3%
• Nevada: Trump 43%, Biden 40%, other 9.2%
• North Carolina: Trump 47%, Biden 38%, other 8.7%
• Pennsylvania: Trump 46%, Biden 40%, other 6.3%
• Wisconsin: Trump 46%, Biden 43%, other 6.5%

Additionally, more than half of registered voters across the country said that Biden should withdraw from the race, compared to just under half who said Trump should do the same.

• Biden should withdraw: 52% agree, 48% disagree.
• Trump should withdraw: 44% agree, 56% disagree.

For the national poll, Emerson surveyed 2,000 registered voters across the country from July 15-16, 2024 with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. For the state surveys, Emerson polled 1,000 registered voters in each state from July 15-16, 2024 with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

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