Emerson Poll: GOP Ahead 5 for Midterms; Trump Ahead 3 for '24

Republicans continue to show promise for the 2022 November midterm elections, according to the latest Emerson College poll released Tuesday.

Not only do Republicans hold more than a 5-point lead in a generic ballot over Democrats, former President Donald Trump holds a 3-point edge over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race, the poll found.

Registered voters were asked if they would vote for a Republican or Democrat congressional candidate in the 2022 midterms:

1. Republican 47.1%.
2. Democrat 41.8%.
3. Undecided 11.2%.

Democrats might have more at stake than their slight congressional majorities in the House and Senate as Biden trails Trump in the hypothetical 2024 race for the White House. The vote at the time of the Emerson poll:

1. Trump 44.9%.
2. Biden 41.9%.
3. Someone else 11.1%.
4. Undecided 2.1%.

"Biden struggles among independent voters: Just 28% approve of the job he is doing, while 64% disapprove," Emerson pollster Spencer Kimball wrote in the analysis Tuesday. "When looking at the midterm generic congressional ballot, independents break 28% for Democrats, 42% with Republicans, and 31% are undecided."

Also, Trump notably has a sizable 12-point favorability advantage over Biden:

• Trump somewhat or very favorable 59%.
• Biden somewhat or very favorable 47%.

"Notable demographic differences include region and education," Kimball added. "Trump leads Biden among both suburban voters, 47% to 38%, and rural voters, 59% to 35%, while Biden holds 54% to 30% support among urban and city voters.

"Regarding education, Trump leads among those without a college degree, 51% to 33%, while Biden leads among those with a college degree or more 52% to 37%."

Voters are overwhelmingly (83%) experiencing inflation hardship under Biden, who has just a 43% approval rating in the poll.

A plurality of voters place the blame of rising gas prices on the sitting president, who has attempted to spin blame to "Putin's Price Hike:"

• Biden administration to blame 39%.
• Russian sanctions 21%, which critics would argue are also technically a function of the Biden administration.
• Gas and oil companies 18%.

Emerson College's national poll was conducted March 18-20 among 1,023 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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