Tags: doug jones | roy moore | alabama election | polling

FiveThirtyEight: Moore Has Edge, Jones Within Polling Error Of Win

Image: FiveThirtyEight: Moore Has Edge, Jones Within Polling Error Of Win
Doug Jones, left, and Roy Moore (AP)

By    |   Thursday, 07 Dec 2017 01:54 PM

Doug Jones, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Alabama, could be within a polling error of a win in Alabama, according to a FiveThirtyEight poll analysis.

However, the analysis notes that Alabama polls have been volatile, the turnout in the Dec. 12 special election is hard to predict, and not many "top-quality pollsters" have been looking at the Alabama race.

Jones and his Republican opponent, Roy Moore, have swung back and forth over the past month. After The Washington Post reported on Nov. 9 claims against Moore of sexual misconduct with underage girls, polls swung in favor of Jones, with Jones having an average of five percentage points higher in polls for the first six or seven days after that, according to the analysis.

Since then, polls have Moore ahead by 3 points on average, the FiveThirtyEight analysis reported.

The closeness of the race shows that normal inexactness of polling gives either Moore or Jones a good chance of winning, the analysis said.

Any lead in low single digits is not secure, according to the analysis. For polls in Senate campaigns since 1998, the margin of error has been closer to 13 percentage points. No polls since the Republican primary runoff that earned Moore the candidacy have shown either candidate with a large lead, the analysis said.

Some challenges that pollsters face in Alabama could be reluctance to vote because of the Moore scandal. Some Republicans could be ashamed to admit to pollsters that they are voting for a candidate that has received allegations of sexual misconduct, according to the analysis.

"Moore seems to have the edge — but he's far from a sure thing," the analysis said.

Moore should have to go through an Ethics Committee investigation if he wins, according to Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn.

"Like many of my colleagues in the United States Senate on both sides of the aisle, I believe the women," Blumenthal said.

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Doug Jones, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Alabama, could be within a polling error of a win in Alabama, according to a FiveThirtyEight poll analysis.
doug jones, roy moore, alabama election, polling
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2017-54-07
Thursday, 07 Dec 2017 01:54 PM
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