Former President Donald Trump has overtaken President Joe Biden in presidential polling for the first time in history of the NBC News polling, a development NBC host Kristen Welker and poll analyst Steve Kornacki called "stunning."
"This is the first time in the history of our poll that former President Trump beats President Biden," Welker noted on Sunday's "Meet the Press," with Kornacki adding Trump had never led Biden starting back in 2019.
Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 46%-44%, and Republicans lead Democrats by the same margin on the generic congressional ballot 47%-45%.
Not only has Biden's job approval hit an all-time low in the NBC News polling at 40%, but also Trump leads the 2024 hypothetical head-to-head race with Biden for the first time.
A large majority of independents (63%) disapprove of the job Biden has done, more than 2-to-1 over the small minority of independents who still approve (just 30%).
Israel's war on Hamas since Oct. 7 has been a catalyst for Biden defections, as he has dropped 8 points on foreign policy approval since September (from an already-low 41% to now just 33%).
"This poll is a stunner, and it's stunning because of the impact the Israel-Hamas war is having on Biden," Public Opinion Strategies Republican pollster Bill McInturff said.
Among young voters (18-34 years old) — just 20% of whom view Biden favorably on Israel's war on Hamas — Biden (42%) trails Trump (46%) by 4 points, which is outside the poll's margin of error.
"This could be a massive sea change," according to Kornacki, who noted Biden was plus-26 points on younger voters in 2020.
Also, Biden has an even greater negative rating on likability, 53%, than Trump now, according to the poll results.
"Joe Biden is at a uniquely low point in his presidency, and a significant part of this, especially within the Biden coalition, is due to how Americans are viewing his foreign policy actions," Hart Research Associates Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt said.
One thing not in debate is Trump's dominance over the Republican primary field. The full GOP primary results:
- Trump 58%
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 18%
- Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley 13%
- Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy 3%
- Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 3%
- Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., 1%
- North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum 1%
- Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson 1%
Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies polled 1,000 registered voters for NBC News between Nov. 10-14. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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