Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in five key battleground states expected to go a long way in determining this year's race for the White House, according to new polls by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer.
Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for November's general election, appears ready to oppose Biden, who's seeking reelection.
In a head-to-head matchup, the Times/Siena/Inquirer polls show Trump ahead in the swing states of Arizona (49%-42%), Georgia (49%-39%), Michigan (49%-42%), Nevada (50%-38%), and Pennsylvania (47%-44%) among registered voters.
Biden clings to a 47%-45% lead in Wisconsin.
Biden won all six of those states in 2020.
Among likely voters, the race was closer, with Biden edging ahead in Michigan.
Victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among the swing states this year would be enough for Biden to win reelection, assuming he did not lose any of the other states he won four years ago.
The Times reported the survey results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other minor-party candidates.
RFK Jr. took an average of 10% of the vote across the six states and drew about equally from Trump and Biden.
The economy and discontent over Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza were cited as key factors in the survey results, the Times reported. The findings mostly are unchanged since surveys in November.
More than half of voters say the economy is "poor," down only a single percentage point since November.
The feeling Biden would do little to improve the nation's fortunes has helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, the Times reported Monday.
Although Biden earned more than 60% of the votes from 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanics in 2020, the president and Trump essentially are tied among the groups in the polls.
The latest polls also show Trump with support from more than 20% of Black voters. That would be the highest level of Black support for any GOP presidential candidate since the enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The survey results showed that nearly 70% of voters say that the country's political and economic systems need major changes.
The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll in Pennsylvania and the Times/Siena polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada were conducted April 28-May 9 among 4,097 registered voters. When all states are joined together, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 1.8 percentage points for all registered voters and plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the likely electorate.
The margin of sampling error for each state poll is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, plus or minus 4.2 points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.5 points in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, and plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.
Charlie McCarthy ✉
Charlie McCarthy, a writer/editor at Newsmax, has nearly 40 years of experience covering news, sports, and politics.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.