Tags: Trump Administration | Donald Trump | GOP2016 | donald trump | election | win | comeback

Pollsters: Trump Has to Make Almost Unprecedented Comeback to Win Election

Image: Pollsters: Trump Has to Make Almost Unprecedented Comeback to Win Election
(AP Images)

By    |   Monday, 15 Aug 2016 04:24 PM

If historical precedent is anything to go by, then Republican nominee Donald Trump's situation is very bleak, according to a report in Politico.

"When you come out of the conventions, the leader in the last 16 elections has not lost the popular vote," University of Texas Professor Christopher Wlezien told Politico.

This goes back to 1952, considered the starting date of modern polling and television.

Making matters worse for Trump supporters is that candidates trailing historically did not have to face today's widespread absentee balloting, which are being mailed to voters as early as next month, meaning there is even less time than in the past for citizens to change their mind.

Wlezien said that if Clinton maintains at least her current margin for another week, making it three weeks since the Democratic National Convention, then she will have an almost 90 percent chance of winning the presidency.

He insists that even such major events as the three expected debates between the candidates will not make much of a difference, because history shows that immediately after the conventions is when almost all voters make up their minds.

However, others point out that this year's election is anything but conventional and thus the regular formulas to predict the race do not pertain.

For example, Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown said last week after a survey showed that Clinton held leads in the swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that "among Clinton voters in all three states more than four in 10 say their opposition to Trump, rather than their liking of her, is the main reason for their vote."

This, to some experts, means that the certainty with which a voter will cast his ballot for a particular candidate is more up in the air than in previous elections. And, in fact, other indications show that there are currently more undecided voters at this stage than usual.

Most experts do agree, however, that there is very little evidence to back up claims of Trump supporters questioning the accuracy of surveys for various reasons, Politico reports. Pollsters have successfully taken into account the numerous variables and problems that might arise, and these experts also point out that generally Trump did not perform better in the Republican primaries than what the polls predicted.

© 2017 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
Newsfront
If historical precedent is anything to go by, then Republican nominee Donald Trump's situation is very bleak, according to a report in Politico.
donald trump, election, win, comeback, pollsters
382
2016-24-15
Monday, 15 Aug 2016 04:24 PM
Newsmax Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
America's News Page
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved