Expect Congress and the Federal Reserve to pony up trillions more in aid and another two years to pass before the economy has fully recovered from the impact of coronavirus pandemic, say respondents to a CNBC survey.
Congress already has put $2.5 trillion into the economic stimulus and is expected to add another $2 trillion. The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is currently at a record $6.45 trillion, but the 36 experts who answered the business network's survey say they believe that figure will eventually hit $9.8 trillion.
"My guess is that the virus itself will largely disappear within a year, but that the structural social and economic impacts will be with us much longer," said John Kattar, chief investment officer at Ardent Asset Management.
Unemployment will likely hit 19% in August despite the relief, respondents said, though they see it falling to 11% by December and 7% by the end of 2021. That would still be twice the level it was before the pandemic hit.
A third of respondents believe the economy won't bounce back fully until the second quarter of 2022, CNBC reported. That said, 19% believe it will recover by the end of 2020 and 19% think it can happen even sooner.
"During the pandemic, production and consumption have been largely deferred and not lost," said Rob Morgan, director of market strategy at US Energy Advisors. "This leads me to believe the economy will experience a V-shaped recovery beginning in the third quarter 2020."
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