While President Joe Biden delays his decision to run for reelection, our just completed national poll has Biden trailing former President Donald Trump 48% to 44% with 8% firmly undecided.
However, upon reviewing the poll’s internal data among independent voters and undecided voters, we believe it’s even worse for President Biden than current polls say.
Independent voters prefer President Trump 43% to 37%.
Suburban voters vote for Trump 51% to 43%.
Trump receives 20% of the vote among African Americans and 42% among Hispanics.
In the battleground states Trump’s lead is 49% to 44% for Biden.
Furthermore, unless the negative trends among the voters regarding the direction of the country and the economy reverse direction, we would not be surprised if President Biden chooses not to run for re-election.
This recent national poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Feb. 17 to 22.
Two-thirds of all voters, 65%, still say that Joe Biden has America on the wrong track. Only 30% say right direction.
However, among the 8% of the undecided 2024 presidential voters, a whopping 86% say the country is on the wrong track.
By a ratio of two to one, the voters say the economy is getting worse, 61%, to only 33% who say it’s getting better.
Among the undecided for president, only 17% say the economy will be better, but 71% say it’s getting worse.
Four in five of all voters, 79%, say they have been negatively impacted by inflation – 42% have been impacted but say they are not struggling.
Another 37% say they are struggling to afford basic necessities.
Among the undecided for president, those affected by inflation rises to 87% and those who are struggling rises to 45%.
President Biden’s job approval is eroding further with only 44% approval, and 54% disapproval. However, among the undecided for president, only 11% approve of the job Biden’s doing, and 75% disapprove.
Joe Biden’s favorable to unfavorable rating is also net negative 44% to 52%, and among the undecided for president, only 11% are favorable; 75% are unfavorable.
Kamala Harris is even less popular with only 39% favorable and 52% unfavorable.
Economic concerns are rising again, as 48% of all voters cite an economic concern as their top issue. Specifically, among them 28% cite inflation.
Among undecided presidential voters, 60%, are more likely to cite economic issues.
Among all voters 52% say the economy is in recession, 42% disagree. 60% among the undecided think the economy is in recession.
Although the poll says President Trump is ahead of Biden by four points, the eight points that are undecided think the country is on the wrong track; the economy is getting worse; they have been hurt by inflation and many can’t afford the basics and they disapprove and dislike Biden.
The undecided voters are not really undecided.
They are waiting to vote against President Biden.
The negative trends against President Biden even extend into his own party’s Democratic primary voters. This explains the Biden Democrats rush to change the Democratic primary order to avoid Biden’s need to campaign to avoid ambushes in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nationally only 26% of all likely Democratic primary voters say that they would vote for Joe Biden followed by Michelle Obama 14%, Bernie Sanders 8%, Pete Buttigieg 7%, Kamala Harris 6%, Hillary Clinton 4%, Elizabeth Warren 4%, and many others receiving less.
However, a sitting incumbent president receiving only a quarter of the vote of his own party’s vote in a primary is a sign of extreme vulnerability.
President Biden is secure only by the lack of a filed viable opponent.
In contrast among national Republican primary voters, President Trump remains in the lead while the leading opponent Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., is weakening.
—57% of all Republican primary voters want President Trump to run again,
—If President Trump runs again 76% of the Republican primary voters say that they will support him. Only 20% say they oppose him.
—In a crowded Republican primary field, Trump leads 42%, DeSantis 26%, Nikki Haley 6%, Mike Pence 5%, Mitt Romney 3% and others receive even less votes.
—In a two-way race Trump beats DeSantis 56% to 38%.
Republicans lead the Democrats in 2024 generic ballot for Congress 48%-41.
While House Democrats are hoping to regain five seats to flip control, Senate Democrats have 22 seats up in 2024 to only 11 for the Republicans.
The renewed Republican generic edge has to be a major concern to both Senate and House Democrats. Their chances to regain the House and keep their slim one seat majority in the Senate is already an uphill race.
Congressional Democrats at some point would rather see a new presidential nominee, instead of Biden, as a better path to regaining House control and keeping the Senate.
The 2024 presidential campaign is just starting, but don’t be surprised to see two campaign strategies:
- The Biden Democrats getting more even vicious and desperate with their attacks on President Trump.
- When the first strategy backfires, President Biden saying for whatever reason he’s not running for re-election.
Link to February 2023 survey results:
National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters Presented by: John McLaughlin On the web www.mclaughlinonline.com
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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