You can now wager on the upcoming presidential election — and even do it legally.
Last month, a federal court ruling opened the door for political prediction markets in the U.S. Investors can now buy "contracts" based on predicting future events, and major brokerage firms like Interactive Brokers are offering their customers the service.
In September, U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb, a Joe Biden appointee, cleared the way for prediction-market startup Kalshi, where people have placed wagers on real-world events, to allow Americans to bet on the election.
Previously, betting on politics was illegal in the U.S., but common for investors and gamblers in overseas markets.
This month, Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx contract market and derivative clearing subsidiary launched Forecast Contracts.
The service allows investors to bet on whether Harris or Trump will win the election, as well as other election-related outcomes including control of the Senate or House and select congressional races.
Unlike traditional gambling platforms, where bookmakers set the odds on a winner, only investors wagering on Kalshi and Interactive Brokers determine the odds.
When Kalshi began taking bets on Oct. 4, Harris was projected to win 51%-49%, but as of this past Wednesday, its website showed the race was tied, with each candidate having a 50% chance of winning.
Today, Interactive Brokers reported on ForecastTrader that its buyers said Kamala Harris has just a 48% chance of winning, and 52% said she won't be the next president.
The ForecastTrader service launched on Oct. 3 for election contracts, and within days, Interactive said more than 1 million contracts were traded on its platform.
Interactive explained that "Forecast Contracts provide exposure to political, economic, and climate indicators while limiting your risk because the max loss on each contract is limited to the price paid for the contract."
Interactive also noted it has a "zero commission" policy and doesn't charge for the contracts.
Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers, said he added the forecast contracts platform to "allow investors to act on the most crucial issues shaping our future" noting the trading allows customers to "manage risk or express views on political events."
Similarly, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a video posted last week on X, the market for predictive contracts is significant and "the next frontier for financial markets."
"This is the next big thing," he said.
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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