Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has a 50/50 chance of securing the Democratic presidential nomination, odds that are twice as good as the next-best candidate, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The opinion poll analysis website, which was founded by statistician Nate Silver, updated its forecast for the 2020 Democratic primary Thursday, listing Sanders has having a 1 in 2 chance of winning more than half the number of pledged delegates, and a 3 in 5 chance of winning a plurality of pledged delegates.
The odds of former Vice President Joe Biden winning more than half was 1 in 5, for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the odds are 1 in 20, for former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg the odds are 1 in 30, and the odds of no candidate reaching more than half was 1 in 4.
FiveThirtyEight uses a model that simulates the various primaries thousands of times in order to determine the most likely outcome for the candidates. The model shows the average number of pledged delegates that each candidate is expected to win at the end of the season. Sanders came out with the most at 1,761 on average, Biden followed with 1,013 on average, Warren with 404 on average, Buttigieg with 382 on average, and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg with 339 on average.
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