Two weeks out is a dangerous vantage from which to predict Senate races, particularly with the presidential race in flux. But, as of the time of this writing, (Oct. 16, the Democrats have a very slight edge in the race to capture the Senate.
Republicans now rule the upper house by 53-47.
Add one Republican gain coming this year in Alabama and you have 54-46.
Here’s the story from there:
One Republican seat seem to be lost already: In Colorado former governor John Hickenlooper sports a ten point lead over Republican incumbent Cory Gardiner 50-40 (KUSA poll).
Three other Republicans, in Arizona, Maine, and Iowa, are behind but could catch up.
Iowa’s Republican Senator Joni Ernst is behind Theresa Greenfield, the Democrat, by 6 points, 47-43 (CBS).
Some polls have Ernst closer and Trump should carry Iowa as he did last time.
In Maine, long time RINO Susan Collins is running 7 points behind Democrat/Independent Sara Gideon, 47-40 (RCP average). Maine will go for Biden, but Collins has a long record of surviving near death experiences and could well still win.
And in Arizona, Republican Sen. Martha McSally is also behind Democrat Mark Kelly by 50-45 (Predictive Insights Poll). She has been trailing all race, but can’t be written off. And yesterday’s Trafalgar Poll (a reputable and usually accurate Republican one) has her only two behind 47-45.
If we lose all three (in addition to Colorado) we will have a 50-50 tie in the Senate and will lose control unless Trump-Pence win the vice president can deliver control to the Republicans.
Beyond those states, Republicans are doing pretty well.
We seem to have eluded a bullet in North Carolina when Democratic Challenger Cal Cunningham has become mired in a sexting scandal that involved cheating on his wife.
Cunningham had led Republican incumbent Thom Tillis all campaign.
But now the Emerson Poll has him clinging to a one point margin over Tillis 45-44.
Tillis’s momentum and the scandal — as it sinks in — should save the seat for the GOP.
In a number of other states, Republican incumbents had seemed to be in trouble but appear to have pulled ahead.
—In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is running three points ahead.
—In Montana, Sen. Steve Dains seems to have pulled ahead of Democratic former governor Steve Bullock by 48-45 in the RCP average.
—In South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham has gained the upper hand over Democrat Jaime Harrison, 46-40 in the NY Times/Siena Poll. Perhaps he was helped by his excellent conduct of the confirmation hearing of Amy Cony Barrett.
—Texas and Kansas, once thought to be close now appear safely Republican.
There is still time to influence these races.
If the Democrats take control of the Senate and Biden wins, they will repeal the filibuster rule, pack the Supreme Court, and admit D.C. as a state (and perhaps Puerto Rico as well) giving them four extra senators.
It will be the end of checks and balances and we will be entirely at their mercy.
Please support Collins, Ernst, and McSally — now.
Dick Morris is former presidential advisor and political strategist. He is a regular contributor to Newsmax TV. Read Dick Morris's Reports — More Here.
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