Polling this past weekend by the Trafalgar Group — the only polling firm that predicted Trump’s 2016 victory — shows big gains by the president among Black and Latino voters.
This cuts deeply into the Democratic base.
In four polls that interviewed 1,000 likely voters each, sponsored by political commentator John Jordan, the president is getting 20-25% of the vote among blacks and 25-40% of Hispanics in key states like Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (each of which he is carrying by three points).
Trump only got 6% of the Black vote and 28% of the Hispanic vote in 2016.
During the second debate, I tuned out a little when moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News asked a series of questions about race relations, police, and protests.
I figured that the last third of the match would feature boiler plate attacks by Biden and well worn replies by Trump.
But was I wrong.
That last 30 minutes turned out to be the most important of the contest.
Trump’s clear and articulate listing of the things he has done to raise minority incomes, release prisoners sentenced to long terms for minor crimes, to create opportunity zones, and to fund historically black colleges and universties, appears to have driven his share of the Black vote through the roof.
Hispanics seem to have followed suit.
These findings, in four such diverse states, amount to a political earthquake.
And not just in this election.
Such a gain among the minority vote is tantamount to an historic realignment.
Blacks voted Republican, in deference to Lincoln’s legacy, until they switched to John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson by a small margin in 1960, then in droves in 1964 after GOP candidate Barry Goldwater voted against the landmark Civil Rights Act.
Now they appear to be swinging back to the Republicans as Donald Trump delivers for them in a way that no president since LBJ (including Obama) has ever done.
For Latinos, the increasing assimilation of the two-thirds of the Hispanic voters who were born in the U.S. is also kindling a move to the president.
There may also be a linkage between the two groups in their joint move to Trump.
As more Blacks publicly embrace the president, Latinos increasingly may feel that they have "permission" to support him.
This narrative may also apply to many white voters who secretly support the president but keep it to themselves because the media has been shaming those who back Trump.
That sense that they would seem "deplorable" if they vote Republican may have kept them in the "undecided" column, led them to vote for third candidates, or even encouraged them to lie to pollsters and say they are voting for Biden.
The biased media polls are designed to catalyze this sense of shame by making Trump backers feel as though they are engulfed in a sea of blue.
But, as these white voters see Blacks supporting Trump, it conveys permission to vote for him.
Nobody in their right mind would predict this election (or anything in this year of constant change).
Trump sure looks good to me.
Dick Morris is former presidential advisor and political strategist. He is a regular contributor to Newsmax TV. Read Dick Morris's Reports — More Here.
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