While we all await the results of the South Carolina primary, let’s take an early peek at the polling in the states that vote on March 3rd.
Overall, Sanders has gained materially in almost all states. Biden has his good spots — he’s on track to win North Carolina — but is likely to do very poorly in California and Texas, which account for half of the Super Tuesday states — and 16% of the convention.
The real casualties have been among the second tier candidates. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have left their heydays in Iowa and New Hampshire far behind as they sink down in the polls.
Bloomberg has used his massive advertising to remain competitive, but he isn’t blowing anyone out anywhere.
Here it is state by state based on the polls reported by realclearpolitics.com.
(Speaking of which, President Trump has continued to post historic highs in job approval, today averaging 45.9%. His vault from the low 40s to the upper-mid forties sustained during impeachment and good economic news appears to be real).
California. (415 delegates)
In California, on Feb 20, Bernie broke out of the high 20s into the mid 30s on the strength of his debate performance. His gains came largely at Biden’s expense as he widened his lead over him from single digits to the high teens.
Warren has run a consistent second place as Biden dropped to third. Despite his massive spending, Bloomberg has never caught on in California and is mired at about ten percent. Ditto for Buttigieg. Klobuchar is well below ten and always has been.
California, by itself, accounts for ten percent of the convention vote. Sanders’ dominating performance here will be very hard to overcome. Warren, who is not doing very well anyplace else, can count on California to keep her alive (even if she loses her home state of Massachusetts).
Even if Biden surges in SC today, his poor performance in California will be an anchor on his candidacy,
Texas. (228 delegates)
Sanders has steadily increased his margin over Biden. At the end of January, he replaced the former vice president in first place in Texas and on Feb. 20 began to lengthen his lead.
With 6% of the delegates coming from Texas, Sanders’ performance — coupled with that in California — makes his lead insurmountable.
After falling from the 30s to 20% in mid February, Biden has never recovered. Unless South Carolina gives him a tremendous boost, he could finish third in Texas.
That’s partially because Bloomberg is coming on strong. Texas is the second most expensive state in which to buy television (after California) and his money talks loudly here. Nobody can compete with his air time. In Texas, Bloomberg soared rapidly into the high teens and low 20s and has stalled out there.
Warren is in the mid teens, Buttigieg at about 10, and Klobuchar at 5 and have always been at about those levels.
Between California and Texas, Dems should stop taking Buttigieg or Klobuchar seriously.
North Carolina (110 delegates)
Perhaps impelled by his momentum South Carolina, Biden has just wrestled the lead here away from Sanders, a key win for Joe if it stands.
Virginia: (99 delegates)
Sanders has moved up smartly here.
Minnesota: (75 delegates)
The media says Klobuchar will have to drop out if she loses her home state. She’ll probably win Minnesota but have to pull out anyway.
Massachusetts: (91 delegates)
By the same logic as Amy faces in Minnesota, the media wants Warren to pull to if she loses Massachusetts, as appears likely. But her showing in California where she is running second, should keep her in.
So, Sanders should emerge as the clear Super Tuesday winner. But while he is increasingly assured of a strong plurality, he is still short of a majority. Biden’s dismal performance in California should sap whatever momentum he’ll get from South Carolina.
Bloomberg is not sweeping all before him as he spends enormous sums of money, but he is buying himself a solid third place behind Sanders and Biden. California will helpequip Warren with enough votes to deal with Sanders exchanging a majority for the vice presienetial slot, although they both have a ways to go.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar should pull out entirely.
DickMorris is the author of the best-selling book "Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary," written with Eileen McGann and published by Humanix Books, available at Barnes & Noble and Amazon. to read more of Dick Morris's Reports — Click Here Now!
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