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Tags: Allan Lichtman

Why the Biden Victory Prediction Is a Myth

Why the Biden Victory Prediction Is a Myth
Former Vice President Joe Biden (Getty Images)

By Monday, 02 November 2020 09:34 AM Current | Bio | Archive

This close to Election Day, and with battleground state polls running neck-and-neck, it doesn’t take much to alarm voters, and he jolted a lot of Trump supporters.

Lichtman doesn’t base his predictions on polls, but rather 13 indicators that he calls keys.

Friday night, American University historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted every presidential election outcome since 1984, predicted that Joe Biden will emerge victorious on November 3.

“It gauges the strength and performance of the party holding the White House,” he told Fox News host Martha MacCallum.

“If six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers.”

In Trump’s case Lichtman found seven of the 13 keys working against him. They are:

  • Key 1: Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018.
  • Key 5: Short-Term Economic, because of an election-year recession.
  • Key 6: Long-Term Economic, because of the sharply negative growth this year.
  • Key 8: Social Unrest, because what is raging across the land.
  • Key 9: Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full U.S. House of Representatives.
  • Key 11: Foreign/Military Success Key, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.
  • Key 12: Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.

They’re admittedly Lichtman’s indicators, so he would be the final authority on how to apply them. Nonetheless, at least five of the seven appear to be debatable.

Key 5 (Short-Term Economy): The Associated Press reported Thursday that “The U.S. economy grew at a sizzling 33.1% annual rate in the July-September quarter — by far the largest quarterly gain on record — rebounding from an epic plunge in the spring, when the eruption of the coronavirus closed businesses and threw tens of millions out of work.”

Key 6 (Long-Term Economy): A Gallup poll released October 29 indicated that 56% of Americans believe they’re better off today than they were four years earlier under former President Obama, despite the economic shutdown from the pandemic.

Key 8 (Social Unrest). Although major U.S. cities have experienced nearly nightly rioting, looting and arson, they’ve nearly all been at the hands of the far-left.

While most of these jurisdictions refuse federal assistance, Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris promotes a fund to bail rioters out of jail when arrested, and Biden campaign staffers have donated to that fund.

Key 9 (Scandal). The articles of impeachment on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress were based on a Russian collusion hoax and claims of browbeating Ukraine that were refuted by its president. Trump was acquitted.

On the other hand, Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, are allegedly in the midst of their own scandal.

Key 11: (Foreign/Military Success). Some of Trump’s greatest success has been in the area of foreign affairs. He:

  • Renegotiated NAFTA, and replaced it with the USMCA, to the benefit of U.S. consumers, business and industry.
  • Brokered peace agreements between Israel and three Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, which collectively are known as the Abraham Accords.
  • Brokered an economic agreement between two bitter enemies in the Balkan Wars — Serbia and Kosovo.

Trump also attained significant military success in his first term, including:

  • Decimating the Islamic State’s caliphate from roughly 41,000 square miles in Syria and Iraq to a few scattered outposts of militants.
  • Eliminated two threats to peace in the Mideast — Islamic State leader Abū Bakr al-Baḡdādī, and Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

Reversing any two of the above five would move Trump from the loser’s column to that of the winner. In addition, there are a few other indicators that haven’t been considered.

Trump, author of “The Art of the Deal,” is arguably the greatest closer in U.S. presidential history, and he’s been working tirelessly to close this deal with the American voter.

On Saturday the president hosted four events in Pennsylvania, and first lady Melania Trump hosted a fifth one there while son Don Jr. headlined one in Florida.

The president hosted five rallies on Sunday, one each in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

Also on Sunday members of the first family headlined four events in Pennsylvania, two in Nevada, and one each in Wisconsin, and Arizona.

Today Trump is scheduled to host two rallies in Michigan, and one each in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The first family and Vice President Mike Pence will headline two events each in Florida and Pennsylvania, and one each in Arizona, Michigan and Iowa.

But the ultimate rebuttal to Lichtman, despite his 36-year winning streak, may have come from my friends Janeen and David, who also observed the historian make his prediction Friday night.

“It terrified me,” Janeen said, “until David said, ‘He’s overdue to be wrong.’”


Michael Dorstewitz is a retired lawyer and has been a frequent contributor to BizPac Review and Liberty Unyielding. He is also a former U.S. Merchant Marine officer and an enthusiastic Second Amendment supporter, who can often be found honing his skills at the range. Read Michael Dorstewitz's Reports — More Here.

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Friday night, American University historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted every presidential election outcome since 1984, predicted that Joe Biden will emerge victorious on November 3.
Allan Lichtman
Monday, 02 November 2020 09:34 AM
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