The results from our latest national survey which was conducted between October 11 and 13 among 1,000 likely voters, shows that the national trends regarding the direction the country, President Trump’s job approval, and the generic vote for Congress appear to be relatively constant since last May.
The majority of voters, 56 percent, say that the country is on the wrong track. Only 37 percent say right direction. Optimism has a stalled. The president’s job approval rating remains polarized — 47 percent approve to 51 percent disapprove. The president’s base of support remains intact with 90 percent of those who voted for him saying that they approve of the job that he’s doing. But it needs to broaden. The generic ballot for Congress remains close with the Republicans at 44 percent and the Democrats at 41 percent. Fifteen percent (15 percent) are undecided which is a bad omen for the majority party.
The major determinants for the midterm election outcome are giving the Democrats hope that they can take control of Congress. However, the possibility, or should we say necessity, of passing a tax cut that will grow the economy next year will give the Republicans the boost they need to keep their majority in Congress. Creating jobs remains the top voter priority for President Trump and Congress. The majority of voters, 50 percent, say the economy is getting better versus 38 percent who say it’s getting worse.
However, in the most important question in our survey this month, the majority of voters, 57 percent, approve of President Trump’s plan to cut taxes. That’s 10 points higher than the president’s job approval rating. That’s 13 points higher than the generic Republican vote for Congress. That’s a lot of room for Republicans to grow their vote. Only 28 percent of all voters disapprove of the tax cut. The Democrats and their allies in the media know that they have to go all out to undermine public support for President Trump’s tax cut.
Voters in every region of the country approve of the tax cut. Eighty-nine percent (89 percent) of Trump voters approve of the tax cut and so do 26 percent of those who voted for Hillary Clinton; 86 percent of Republicans approve; 54 percent of independents approve and 33 percent of Democrats approve. President Trump’s plan to cut taxes is very popular right now. Among those who are undecided for Congress, they approve 47 percent to 15 percent and 28 percent of those who would vote for a Democrat approve.
When asked which is the most important goal for President Trump’s tax cut plan, the plurality of voters, 39 percent, say providing tax relief to middle income families; followed by 30 percent who say growing the economy to create jobs and 20 percent who say simplifying the tax code. However, within the numbers growing the economy to create jobs is most important among Trump voters, 43 percent, Republicans, 43 percent and conservatives 37 percent. Tax relief to middle income families is most important among Clinton voters 48 percent, Democrats 44 percent, and moderates 41 percent. It is clear that growing economy to create jobs excites the existing base, while middle class tax cuts broadens the base.
This is why Democrats will go all out to block the Trump tax cuts. Republicans need to be united and go all in for the tax cuts to even attract support from vulnerable Democrats who are up for election next year.
Among all voters, the majority, 51 percent, supports lowering the corporate tax rate for large and small businesses in the United States from 35 percent to 20 percent. Only 34 percent oppose. Trump voters support the business tax cut 73 percent to 15 percent; Republicans 75 percent to 15 percent; Independents 45 percent to 36 percent and 36 percent of Democrats support it as well. The Democrats will play class warfare against big corporations and ignore the fact that it helps small businesses and creates jobs. But the Republicans must counter with the growth and jobs arguments.
When asked which is the better way to pay for the tax cuts, nearly two-thirds of all voters, 63 percent, say grow the economy to provide more jobs, higher wages and more tax revenue. Only 15 percent say eliminate deductions and raise taxes on upper income taxpayers and businesses. Support for growth rises among Trump voters to 75 percent, among Republicans 73 percent, among independents 57 percent, among African Americans 55 percent, whites 57 percent, and Hispanics 60 percent. Most important among those who are undecided in their vote for Congress, they support the growth argument 52 percent to 33 percent. Even 40 percent of those who are voting for Democrats support the growth position. It appears that the majority of American voters are supply siders rather than socialists. Republicans need the courage to stand up to the inside the beltway statist bureaucrats and join the outside the beltway majority for economic growth.
Nevertheless, Democrats have telegraphed another point of attack. Eliminating all federal income tax deductions for state and local taxes is polarizing among voters — 39 percent approve and 37 percent disapprove. However, keeping the Federal income tax deduction for state and local taxes for households who earn less than $400,000 a year receives support from a plurality, 40 percent, who approve; while 27 percent disapprove. Republicans need to neutralize this attack to have the votes they need to pass tax cuts.
Within the coming weeks enacting President Trump’s tax cuts to take effect by January in 2018 are as critical to political success for Republicans as President Reagan’s tax cuts working in 1983 were for his re-election in 1984. More important, the president’s tax cuts are critical for the economic growth of the nation as were Reagan’s and President Kennedy’s tax cuts were for continued prosperity of the nation. The Democrats know this and they would rather obstruct to gain political control at the expense of the country. President Trump and the Republicans must follow the examples of Presidents Reagan and Kennedy and use public opinion to pass their tax cuts. It’s good politics, good for the economy and it’s even better for the American people.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. Last year John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day.
Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. He also serves as a consultant and market research strategist to Fortune 500 companies. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.
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