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Congressional Ballot Tightens, Time for GOP to Play Offense

america crash economy due to current white house and congressional policies


John McLaughlin By and Monday, 29 August 2022 05:51 AM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

This national poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Aug. 20 - Aug. 24.

As of now, there are 71 days to election day and a mere 25 days until the first states have early voting.

September will be the critical month to set the agenda for the Nov. 8 elections — especially since most states have early voting and some states have all mail in ballots.

As Americans look to enjoy the end of summer and the Labor Day weekend the election day campaign appears to be tightening, as we get closer to the midterms. 

Voters say the direction of the country is still overwhelmingly on the wrong track: 67%.

Only 28% believe the country is headed in the right direction.

This is down from 73% (wrong track) last month.

Do more voters really believe things are getting better?

Or, are the Republicans not pushing the wrong track message in this election?

Forty-six percent (46%) of President Biden’s 2020 voters and 46% of Democrats say the country is on the wrong track, and so do 89% among Republicans and 69% among independents.

Shouldn’t the Republicans be challenging the Democrats on the future of America? Do we really want to allow the Joe Biden big government socialists to continue to transform America?

The majority of voters, 57%, say the economy is in recession. Sixty-percent (60%) of all voters say the economy is getting worse.

Only 34% say the economy is getting better.

This is down from 80% saying worse back in June. However, this new poll was completed just before the stock market lost over 1,000 points on fears of interest rate increases due to President Biden’s inflationary spending.

Among Republicans, 77%, among Independents 62% and among Democrats 43% say that the economy is getting worse.

Economic issues, 45%, dominate the voters most important personal concerns, while social issues are only 29%. Security concerns are 11%. As a single issue 21% cite inflation and 7% cite abortion.

Most worrisome for the Biden big government socialists must be the huge opportunity for Republicans to gain votes by personalizing and focusing on the impact of inflation is having on Americans.

Nearly half of all voters, 43%, say that inflation and higher prices have them "struggling to keep up and afford basic necessities."

Another 39% say that they are not struggling, but inflation has had "a significant impact" on their finances and spending.

Inflation and higher prices have negatively impacted four in five voters.

Among those who are undecided for Congress, 62% are struggling to make ends meet.

Where are the Republican ads empathizing with these working Americans?

The most disturbing news for inside the beltway, D.C. Republicans has to be that they cannot glide into the majority in Congress this Fall.

The generic ballot is now tied at 45% Republican and 45% Democratic, 10% are undecided. Last month we had the Republicans ahead 48% - 43%.

While the Republicans lead among Republicans, 96% - 3%, and lose the Democrats 89%-7%, most concerning they are now losing among independents 41% - 31%.

The most notable drop is among independent women who vote Democratic 39% - 23% with 37% undecided. Independent men are more evenly split, voting Democratic 43%, Republicans 40%, with 17% undecided.

Democrats appear to have brought more unity to their base by steamrolling spending measures through Congress, while Republicans gave President Biden a peaceful vacation.

Only 9% among Biden 2020 voters and 7% of Democrats are voting Republican for Congress. The Republicans are failing to create rejection among Independents and Democrats.

This is a formula for failure.

Recently former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich who engineered a historic Republican takeover of Congress in 1994 advised Republican candidates to make their opponent’s first name Biden.

He’s right on.

President Biden still has a 55% national disapproval. Every vote the Republicans can get exists in that disapproval and the wrong track voter segments.

Twenty-four percent (24%) among Biden 2020 voters now disapprove of the job that he is doing. So does 20% disapprove among those voting for the Democrats for Congress, 69% disapprove among those who are undecided for Congress, 21% disapprove among affiliated Democrats, 59% disapprove among independents, 50% disapprove among moderates, 33% disapprove among Blacks, 43% disapprove among Hispanics, 56% disapprove among men, 55% disapprove among women and 43% disapprove among urban voters.

Why did the Republicans allow President Biden a vacation from the campaign?

Why are they allowing the Democrats in Congress who voted for his failed agenda to hide those votes? September needs to be the month where Republicans aggressively challenge the Biden big government socialists on inflation and higher prices.

Besides President Biden’s bad opinion ratings, Kamala Harris remains disliked, 40% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Nancy Pelosi is disliked 34% favorable, 57% unfavorable.

So called moderate Joe Manchin is disliked 20% favorable, 48% unfavorable and even moderates dislike him, 17% favorable to 45%, unfavorable.

Looking towards 2024 three in four Democrats do not vote for Joe Biden in their primary. Biden only receives 23%, Michelle Obama 13%, Kamala Harris 8%, and Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton get 6% each and 20 others receive even less.

The Democrats do not have a strong leader for 2024. Without Joe Biden, only Michelle Obama 16% and Kamala Harris 15% are in double digits.

In contrast, following the FBI raid on President Trump’s Florida home, he remains very strong.

  • 69% of all Republican primary voters want him to run again.
  • If Trump were to run again, primary voters would support him 84% to 12%.
  • In a field of twelve, President Trump has an overwhelming lead with 55% and in a distant second is Governor DeSantis at 15%. No other candidate gets double digits.
  • In a 2024 Presidential rematch, Trump would beat Biden decisively 49% to 45%, getting 10% of Biden 2020 voters, 12% of Democrats, 27% of Blacks, 44% of Hispanics, 51% of voters under 55, and winning independents 45%-44%.
  • Against Kamala Harris, Trump wins 51% to 43%.

The Republicans need to wonder why Trump is doing better against Biden than they are running against the Biden Democrats for Congress?

There is evidence that the Republicans for Congress are losing the message war.

By a margin of 49% to 38%, voters approve the recent $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act spending package while the plurality, 43%, believes it will make the economy worse and only 39% say it will make things better.

Also 50% oppose the expansion of the IRS with 87,000 new agents, while only 37% support this measure. Where are the Republican ads defining this issue?

Questions in our poll sponsored by show that the Biden administration pursuing a renewal of the Iran nuclear deal is strongly opposed by the voters. This can give Republicans an opportunity to help their candidates for Senate and the House.

  • 61% do not think concluding a deal between the European Union and Iran will stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons, only 16% say it will.
  • 63% oppose the United States agreeing to a European brokered deal with Iran that prohibits American inspections of Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The issues are there.

If the Republicans want to regain majorities in Congress, it’s time to follow President Trump’s example and play offense against the Biden Democrats.

McLaughlin Poll: National Monthly Omnibus 

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.

© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

The issues are there. If the Republicans want to regain majorities in Congress, it’s time to follow President Trump’s example and play offense against the Biden Democrats.
stock, market, inflationary
Monday, 29 August 2022 05:51 AM
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