On Thursday, our blog discussed our most recent McLaughlin & Associates November National Poll, which revealed President Biden’s continued collapse in terms of support of amongst likely voters and his base.
But, in this blog, we’ll discuss how his performance — or lack thereof — is impacting next year’s midterms, the current Congress, 2024, and more.
First, let’s start with some good news for the president. As concerns about Biden increase, what’s keeping Joe Biden as president is the growing dislike of Vice President Kamala Harris. Her favorable rating has reached an all-time low at 40% with 55% being unfavorable.
Likewise, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., remains very unpopular with only 34% favorable and 58% unfavorable.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has his lowest favorable rating 31% and highest unfavorable rating 49%.
How does this translate into next year’s midterm?
Our poll shows that the Republican lead on the generic ballot for Congress has increased to 48% to 44% over the Democrats.
Analyzing the 8% undecided vote by wrong track for the country and the Biden disapproval rating, shows that they will probably vote Republican two-to-one for a 53%-47% Republican landslide.
And not that anybody is counting down the days, but what could happen in 2024 in the presidential race?
Well, since May, we have been asking the voters that if Biden is 78 years old and will be 82 at the end of his term, how likely they thought it would be that Vice President Kamala Harris will be president before the end of Biden’s term.
In May, 64% said it was likely Harris would be president. Each month that number has since fallen; it’s now 55%. That’s still a majority, but it’s becoming clear that as Kamala Harris becomes more unpopular, voters do not want her to become president.
In other words, Vice President Harris is the best insurance that Joe Biden has against impeachment or the 25th Amendment.
Although we are very skeptical that Joe Biden will be running for re-election, when we asked potential voters about a hypothetical Democratic primary with Joe Biden and 16 other Democrats, Biden received only 24% of the vote.
That's a political disaster for an incumbent president, to be under 50% of their party’s primary base vote.
The next top two candidates were Michelle Obama at 16% and Kamala Harris at 13%. (Not too far from Biden’s small lead.)
The bottom line is that more than three out of four Democrats want to see someone other than Joe Biden to be their nominee for president in 2024.
Without Joe Biden in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary the leaders are Michelle Obama at 23%, Kamala Harris at 22%, Pete Buttigieg at 8%, and Stacey Abrams, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., all tied at 5%, with 10 others trailing with fewer votes.
The Republican side of the 2024 presidential race is a completely different scenario. It’s really the Donald Trump scenario.
As Joe Biden fails, Trump’s stock rises. No one is doing more to make Donald Trump president again than Joe Biden.
Seventy-one percent of all Republican primary voters want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024, according to our poll.
If Donald Trump were to run again in 2024 Republican primary voters give him his highest level of polling support, 85% to 12%. Among Trump 2020 voters it’s 92% to 4% for Trump and among conservatives who dominate the primary it’s Trump 87% to 9%.
In a hypothetical field with 15 other Republicans, Donald Trump leads with 55% to Ron DeSantis’ 15% and Mike Pence 7%. No other candidate receives more than 3%. Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah and Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. are splitting the "Never Trump" primary vote with 2% each.
Without President Trump, there is no dominant candidate. Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., receives 25%, Donald Trump, Jr. gets 20% and Mike Pence 13%. Thirteen other candidates are all in single digits.
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would beat either Biden or Harris decisively.
Among all voters President Trump beats President Biden 49% to 44%.
Biden only receives 83% of those who voted for him in 2020, while Trump receives 96% of his 2020 vote.
Trump also beats Biden among independents 46% to 40% and garners 10% among Democrats. That's very different than 2020, Democrats for Trump could be a growing enterprise.
Trump also improves from 2020 among Blacks 14%, Hispanics 42%, and wins among voters under 55 years of age 49% to 43%, among suburban voters it's 49% to 45%.
If Joe Biden doesn’t make 2024, President Trump beats Vice President Harris even more decisively, 50% to 42%.
Harris only receives 81% of those who voted in 2020 for Biden and Harris, while Trump gets 96% of his 2020 vote.
Trump wins among independents, 47% to 39%, and gets 10% among Democrats.
Trump also improves from 2020 among Blacks 14%, Hispanics 43% and wins among voters under 55 years 51% to 42% and suburban voters 50% to 42%.
As Biden Democrats continue to fail America, voters are looking for an election to perform an intervention.
If Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer continue in the same direction, then it seems safe to say that there will be a correction in the midterms.
In 2024, that change will be led by President Trump.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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