In our just completed national survey of 1,000 likely voters, the polarization of the American electorate has not ended with the elections of 2020. Instead, in spite of all the promises and rhetoric political division and disunity continues into 2021.
Ironically, President Trump has left a recovering economy and historic vaccine to the benefit of President Biden, but the country remains about evenly polarized by partisan politics. This roughly equal division defines virtually every issue and the voters’ political outlooks.
Almost half the voters, 46%, say that the country is headed in the right direction, while 48% say it is on the wrong track. Democrats are more likely to say right direction 75% to 19% and Republicans say right direction only 25% and 70% wrong track. Independents say wrong track 59% and only 34% say right direction.
Similarly, the generic ballot for Congress is tied at 46% Republican and 46% Democrat. Eight percent are undecided. Republicans vote for the generic Republican for Congress 92% to 6%. Democrats vote for the generic Democrats 92% to 7% and independents split almost evenly; 39% vote Republican and 37% vote Democrat, with 24% undecided.
Recently our firm conducted the CPAC poll of conservative leaders and activists who attend their influential conference. Among the 1,007 respondents 97% approved the job President Trump had done. 95% want to continue his policies. 68% want him to run again in 2024 and in a field of 20+ potential 2024 presidential candidates, President Trump received 55% of the vote and no other candidate was close.
The left-wing D.C. media dismissed these results saying they only represent a small sliver of conservative pro-Trump activists.
In our new national voter poll, among all likely Republican primary voters which includes independents, President Trump dominates voter opinions:
- Seventy-two percent want Donald Trump to run again for President in 2024. Only 20% say no.
- If Donald Trump ran for President again in 2024, 81% would support him for the Republican nomination. Only 15% would oppose.
- If Donald Trump won the Republican nomination for President, 80% would vote for him in the election.
- In a field of 15 candidates Donald Trump wins 55% and the next closest finishers are: Mike Pence 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, Ron DeSantis 4%, Candace Owens 3%, Nikki Haley 3%, Mitt Romney 3%, and all others at 2% or less with 10% undecided.
- Without Donald Trump, if the primary election were held Donald Trump, Jr. leads with 21%, Mike Pence 15%, Ted Cruz 9%, Ron DeSantis 9%, Mitt Romney 6%, Nikki Haley 5%, Candace Owens 5%, Ivanka Trump 4% and all others received 3% or less and 17% were undecided.
From these results, it’s clear that the historic second impeachment against President Trump totally backfired and his exoneration made his political base even more supportive of him.
In the potential 2024 Democratic primary for President, without Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 28%, former first lady Michelle Obama 23%, New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez , 8%, Pete Buttigieg 7, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker 4%, Andrew Yang 4%, all others were 3% or less and 14% were undecided.
As of now, Joe Biden appears to be enjoying a bit of a honeymoon from the media. The majority of voters, 55%, approve of the job he’s doing while 40% disapprove. This is not as good as President Obama at this time who had a 71% favorable rating to only 14% unfavorable in January 2009, and in our May 2009 poll had a job approval of 62% to 34%. It’s closer to what President Trump enjoyed in February 2017 with a 51%-44% job approval.
However, Biden’s ratings are still polarized by party with Democrats approving 90% to 8%. Among Republicans only 26% approve, but 70% disapprove. Among independents once again they split closely with 48% approve and 45% disapprove.
Ironically, Joe Biden receives a 61% approval for distributing the vaccines created under President Trump’s operation warp speed.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., remains very unpopular.
The majority of voters, 55%, are unfavorable to her and only 34% are favorable to Pelosi. 85% of Trump voters and 82% of Republicans dislike Pelosi; 64% of independents are unfavorable to her and so are 28% of Biden voters, 23% of Democrats, 52% of moderates, and 50% of women.
Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer is also disliked with a 28% favorable rating and 47% unfavorable rating.
On the issues, 60% of all voters favor free market capitalism, while only 18% prefer big government socialism.
Socialism rises only among liberals 38%, Democrats 33%, African Americans 37%, among Biden voters 30%, among under 55 voters 26%, and urban voters 25%.
Almost half the voters, 49%, say that the economy is in recession which is down from 65% in June.
Forty-two percent say the economy is not in recession which is down from 44% last month.
Almost half the voters, 47%, say the economy is getting worse which is down from 65% in April.
The remainder, 44%, say the economy is getting better. Democrats say the economy is getting better 56% to 35%, but Republicans say it’s getting worse 56% to 36% better, and independents say getting worse 53% to only 36% better.
The majority of voters, 51%, for the first time since 2019, say that they favor smaller government with fewer services, while only 35% prefer larger government with many services.
Republicans prefer smaller government 70% to 20%, while Democrats prefer larger government 54% to 29%. Independents favor smaller government 56% to 30%.
On issue after issue Americans remain in two polarized parties. Although the Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Sen. Schumer, D-N.Y., Democrats control the federal government, they are neither healing nor uniting the country.
No wonder President Trump remains the strongest leader, with a rock-solid base, in opposition to them.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. In 2016, John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day. Their firm currently polls for the Trump Pence re-election campaign.
Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. Read Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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