The results of our recently completed national survey of 1,000 likely voters show that although the direction of the country remains in roughly the same place as last month with 38% saying that we’re headed in the right direction, and 60% saying the U.S. is on the wrong track, there appears to be lower concerns for the spread of coronavirus and greater concern for the economy.
Since last month, concerns for coronavirus have fallen from 41% to 31%, while economic concerns have risen from 26% to 31%.
Similarly, although more voters are saying the country is in recession has risen from 56% last month to 62% this month, the number of voters who say the economy is getting better has risen from 29% last month to 38% in May.
Those who said the economy is getting worse fell from 65% to 57%. Therefore, there is a net, +17%, move towards economic optimism.
It appears that the country is organically moving to re-open as the majority of voters want to re-open.
The majority of all voters, 56%, say we should safely re-open the economy and let people voluntarily begin to resume a more normal way of life while 42% say we should continue to limit economic and social activity until infection and death rates decrease even more. Republicans, 78%, favor re-opening as do Independents, 59%, and voters over 55, 66%. Democrats, 65%, African Americans 68%, and Hispanics 51%, would like to see the levels of infection and death rates decrease more.
The majority of all voters, 54%, say that K through 12 schools in their community should make preparations to reopen at the beginning of the school year so that students can return with common sense public health precautions and social distancing in place.
Four in 10 voters, 39%, say that students should start the next school year continuing to learn remotely from home. The preference to re-open schools increases among Republicans 67%, Independents 58%, Hispanics 50%, and voters over 55, 62%. The preference to continue remote learning increases among Democrats 55%, African Americans 60% and those under 55 years old, 46%.
The battle for control of Congress remains in a dead heat with the Democrats maintaining a mere one point lead over the Republicans, 47% to 46%, with only 8% undecided.
The President’s job approval is at 47%. Down a statistically insignificant point from last month. However, among Republicans the president has a very strong 90% job approval rating, and among conservatives, 81% approval. The president’s base remains rock solid and the key to success is expanding support among independents, Democrats and moderates. One key to the president’s popular expansion is his current job approval among Hispanics, 36%, and African Americans, 19%, that exceeds his 2016 voter total among those voter segments. President Trump’s coronavirus job approval is now identical to his overall rating. He’s being judged totally on his success in dealing with the coronavirus crisis.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has driven her unfavorable rating to the highest level since her impeachment of President Trump backfired on her. Pelosi’s favorable rating has fallen in a month from 39% to 37%, but her unfavorable rating has risen from 53% to 56%. Pelosi’s unfavorable rating is a path to success for President Trump and Republicans running for Congress. Two-thirds, 63%, of Independents dislike Nancy as well as 24% of Democrats. Almost half the voters under 55 years of age, 48%, and the majority of women voters, 56%, are unfavorable to Pelosi. Even 31% of voters who disapprove the job President Trump is doing, and 69% of the undecided for Congress, are unfavorable to Speaker Pelosi. Battling with Nancy Pelosi is a very productive conflict for President Trump and the Republicans in Congress.
Major portions of Speaker Pelosi’s last stimulus bill were very unpopular which could explain the rise in her negatives and the fact that it died in the Senate without any public calls to resuscitate it.
Six in ten voters, 61%, disapprove of providing taxpayer funded healthcare including Medicare and Medicaid to illegal immigrants for free. Only 34% approve. Hispanics approve 59% to 34% and so do Democrats 53% to 40%.
Almost three in four voters, 72%, say that only American citizens should receive $1,200 direct cash payments from the U.S. Treasury. Only 21% say that illegal immigrants and foreign nationals in the U.S. should be allowed to receive the $1,200 payments. This sentiment extended across all political and demographic voter segments.
The majority of voters, 54%, disapprove that, while millions of Americans have lost their jobs, to give amnesty and citizenship to illegal immigrants so that they can get jobs in America. Voters who approve of Trump also disapprove of amnesty and jobs for illegal immigrants by 71%, but so do 39% among those voters who disapprove of the job the president is doing. Republicans disapprove, 74%, and independents disapprove, 59%, but so do 33% of Democrats. Among African American and Hispanic voters, 38% of each group opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants so they can get jobs.
Comparing the core of President Trump’s proposed economic policy to restart the economy, saving and creating jobs by suspending the payroll tax for workers and businesses, increasing the meals deductions for businesses to 100% and protecting businesses from liability lawsuits so they can re-open vs. Speaker Pelosi’s plan to further increase government spending by $3 trillion, including almost $1 trillion for state and local governments, voters prefer President Trump’s proposed policies by 60% to only 25% for Pelosi’s bill.
As expected, the president’s policies are strongly supported by his base: those who approve the job the president is doing support his plan 74%-15%, Republicans 77%-13%, Independents 55%-27% and conservatives 78%-10%.
However, the most stunning results are the popularity of the payroll tax cut, meals tax deduction and liability shield over Pelosi’s massive government spending plan among those who disapprove of Trump 48%-35%, Democrats 50%-36%, liberals 47%-39%, moderates 54%-29%, African Americans 52%-35%, Hispanics 58%-29%, younger voters under 55 58%-28% and women 63%-20%.
Speaker Pelosi has made her move. It’s now time for President Trump to press Congress to vote for his plan to restart the economy and recreate jobs.
Most unpopular among Speaker Pelosi’s relief package was the provision to make dangerous prisoners eligible for release, including rapists, murderers and even notorious serial killers like Son of Sam.
Seventy-two percent, (72%), of the voters disapproved and only 20% approved. Disapproval went across the board by every political and demographic segment. It was ridiculous that Speaker Pelosi would include such an unpopular idea as freeing serial killers in her "Heroes Bill."
The majority of voters, 52%, say that President Trump should continue to fight to change Washington. Only 37% say no. Independents, 51% to 38% and moderates 43% to 40% want President Trump to change Washington.
In a very consistent manner, the majority still prefers free market capitalism over big government socialism 61% to 16%. Last month we saw an unprecedented closing of American voter preference for smaller government over larger government to a slim 45% to 41%.
However, this month the preference for smaller government with fewer services has risen to 48% while an appetite for larger government with more services fell to 38%.
Nevertheless, there has to be a concern for younger voters where voters under 55 prefer larger government, 45% to 40%, but voters over 55 prefer smaller government, 60% to 28%.
At the end of last week President Trump announced his support for restarting religious services as essential. A solid majority of American voters, 61%, agreed with him, while only 31% disagreed that since mental health, grief counseling, liquor stores and even cannabis stores in many states are deemed essential, religious services which are conducted with face masks and social distancing should be classified as essential as well.
This support extended across every religious group with the greatest support among Evangelical Christians 78%, among all Protestants 72% and among Catholics 62%. Sixty-two percent (62%) of atheists and 58% of agnostics opposed, but most interesting, among voters who say they belong to no religion, they agreed with the President 51% to 41%.
On this issue of keeping religious services closed down, it seems that most elected officials appear to be greatly out of touch with most American voters. When we asked voters if they view that our governors, Congress and elected officials think religious services are essential services, the majority of voters, 50%, said no. Only 30% said these elected officials do.
The number of voters who say that elected officials do not think religious services are essential is stunning among Evangelical Christians 52%, all Protestants 54%, Catholics 47% and virtually every other voter group.
Now with almost three months into the coronavirus emergency, it seems that most voters are moving to re-open and, most important, the majority of voters support the president’s policies to allow the country and economy to recover.
Link to poll results:
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. In 2016, John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day. Their firm currently polls for the Trump Pence re-election campaign.
Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. Read Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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