In 2016, we had the privilege of advising then-candidate Donald J. Trump from the primaries through election day.
The Republican establishment didn’t think he would win. He beat them for the Republican nomination. The Washington, D.C. establishment didn’t think he could win in November 2016.
The establishment media created the "Hillary electoral lock." He beat them again.
Then, for four years, they tried every means possible to delegitimize him.
The Washington establishment created an absolute phony Russian dossier. The CIA and FBI used it against our President. They launched multiple investigations. They impeached him and President Trump beat them again.
Politically they used a global pandemic, economic shutdowns with depression levels of unemployment, riots that caused the dismantling of public safety in cities across America, and finally the unconstitutional changes of election laws to water down voter ID, signature verification and other election integrity measures to narrowly defeat President Trump by a mere 44,000 votes out of 160 million votes cast.
Then, for good measure, the Washington D.C. establishment impeached President Trump --again--and unconstitutionally tried private-citizen Trump in a political show trial that was another waste of time and money during a pandemic.
For good measure, the Big Tech and Big Media establishment decided to censor private citizen Trump and take away his free speech.
In spite of all that, President Trump left the Democratically-controlled Biden/Harris government with a strong America at peace, a growing economy that was creating jobs again by the millions, and the historic Operation Warp Speed Trump vaccines that are ending the global pandemic.
The Democratic party won the 2020 election with the help of Big Tech and the mainstream media, who all covered for candidate Joe Biden who rarely had to campaign, or even leave his Delaware basement. His voters said he was too old. Trump voters said he was senile with dementia.
Either way President Biden isn’t releasing any cognitive tests for public consumption that could precipitate a national security crisis. They even covered up the lucrative Hunter Biden corruption with foreign businesses in Russia and China just to beat President Trump.
Our latest monthly May national poll of 1,000 likely 2022 voters, modeled after the 2020 turnout, conducted May 13 through 17, shows that good old President Biden is still skating along with a net positive job approval, but it’s down from last month – 56% approve, 43% disapprove.
President Biden’s favorable to unfavorable ratings are closer 53% to 46%. Biden is net unfavorable among independents 47%-51%, whites 44%-56%, voters over 55 47%-53% and men 47%-52%.
But who could dislike an old guy who gets much more positive media coverage than his predecessor?
However, Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be paying a public opinion price for being in charge of the border, but not visiting the border, let alone regaining control of the border from the Mexican cartels, drug smugglers and human traffickers.
As of today, less than half of all voters, 47%, are favorable to Kamala Harris while 48% are unfavorable to her.
Voters who are undecided for Congress are net unfavorable 35%-50%; independents 40%-52%; white voters 38%-57%; voters over 55 40%-56%; married voters 42%-54%; men 41%-54% and suburban voters 43%-52%.
This must be very concerning for Democrats. Especially because in this poll we brought back a question that we had asked before the election last year with nearly the same results:
"Joe Biden was 78 when he was sworn in and will be 82 at the end of his term. How likely is it that Vice President Kamala Harris will be president before the end of Joe Biden’s four-year term?"
Among all voters two thirds, 64%, said it’s likely that Kamala Harris will be president to finish Biden’s term.
Even among Biden voters 51% and among Democrats 50% said it’s likely Harris will be president.
It’s no secret to the majority of American voters that Joe Biden will not serve his full term.
Therefore, it’s no surprise that Kamala Harris is the leading Democrat in their 2024 primary with 35% of the vote to Michelle Obama 16%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7% and Pete Buttigieg 6%.
As we have seen in previous months the impeachment, relentless media attacks, censorship and persecution of President Trump have backfired among Republican primary voters.
Three quarters, 73%, of all Republican primary voters, which includes independents who vote in GOP primaries, want to see Donald Trump run again in 2024.
That’s an amazing statistic.
If Donald Trump runs again Republican primary voters would support him 82%-13% and they would vote for him in the general election 83%-11%.
President Trump has near unanimous support in the base.
In a crowded field of 16 potential 2024 Republicans President Trump swamps them with 57% of the vote to distant second place Mike Pence 10%, Ron DeSantis 8% and at the bottom of the list Liz Cheney gets 1%. Some announcement bounce for the Wyoming Congresswoman.
Without President Trump in the 2024 primary, the leading candidates are Mike Pence 19%, Ron DeSantis 18%, Donald Trump, Jr. 13% and Ted Cruz 12%.
Now here comes the explosion of liberals. When we asked a simple presidential ballot between Donald Trump, the Republican, and Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, Trump leads Harris 49% to 45%.
Most notably Trump leads Harris among independents 48%-42% and suburban voters 52%-42%, but he also takes 39% of the Hispanics and 17% among African Americans.
2024 is a long ways off, but the honeymoon is already over for Kamala Harris. All the relentless attacks against President Trump have backfired and will continue to backfire. No wonder the Democrats have moved on from impeachment to hoping for new phony indictments.
They must have the same numbers in their polls. The voters want results, but not the kind that they are getting from Biden and Harris.
Although 2024 is awhile from now, 2022 is coming closer. Once again, the mid-terms are trending against the Democrats which is why they seem desperate to change the election laws, overriding all state laws, eliminating voter ID, gutting signature verification, creating taxpayer funding of their campaigns and rigging the FEC against Republicans.
Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is very unpopular with only 37% favorable and 57% unfavorable.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is only 32% favorable to 48% unfavorable.
On the generic ballot Republicans lead 47% to 46%.
One desperate measure to change election laws, in places such as California and Vermont that allow non-citizens to vote in US elections, is very unpopular with only 30% approval and 61% disapproval. Democrats disapprove 48%-37%; independents 22%-68% and Republicans 16%-81%. Biden voters disapprove 45%-40% and those who are undecided for Congress disapprove 14%-66%.
Making matter worse for the Biden Democrats, the economy is cooling off in public opinion. Last month the majority of voters said the economy was getting better 52%-39%. This month better has fallen to better 49% and 43% say worse. The majority of voters, 50%, say we’re in a recession. Only 42% say we are not in recession. The direction of the country has stalled at 49% right direction to 46% wrong track.
As the virus recedes as a top issue to 16%, reopening the economy and other economic concerns rise to 27% and fixing immigration has risen to 12%.
Voters still favor smaller government with fewer services over larger government with many services 48% to 37%. Free market capitalism continues to dominate big government socialism 64%-15%.
It’s early to look at 2024, but with the Democrats and liberal media apologizing for their polling failures of 2020, if they take a poll based on the actual 2020 turnout, they are not going to like what they see. Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris for President.
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years.
Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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