This national poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 17 to Sept. 22.
As of this writing, there are now 41 days to Election Day.
Mail-in ballots are circulating in some states and many more to follow soon.
This means the 2022 midterm elections madness is on.
With just over six weeks out we posted our poll results.
Now for the analysis:
Republicans seem to have an edge, but — the trends are mixed.
The number of voters who say that the United State is on the wrong track is still high at 62%, but that’s down from 67% last month and 73% in July.
Only 33% say the country is on the right track.
Voters are picking sides, and with double digit inflation for food and energy, a recession, layoffs looming, a national crime wave, global insecurity and a weaker America, some of them are kidding themselves for political reasons.
Every vote the Republicans can get in this election rests among voters who think the country is on the wrong track, but the GOP must prosecute their case to win a new American majority.
We are truly in a verifiable 21st century, post pandemic election. One which is about to introduce new majority voter coalitions.
When we asked only those voters who said the country is on the wrong track: "Do you think it’s President Joe Biden’s fault that the United States is on the wrong track?" 67% said "Yes." 36% said "No." That’s only 42% of the entire electorate.
GOP opposition leaders need to make a more effective case, that the U.S. is on the wrong track and that it's President Joseph Robinette Biden’s fault!
Biden needs to be on the ballot — not Trump as the Democrats would like project.
Biden is the president. Biden is on the ballot, and our nation's condition is Biden’s fault.
There’s still plenty of public sentiment that Republicans can make that case.
Six in 10 voters, 61%, say that the United States is in a recession.
This is the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic caused the economy to shut down in June of 2020.
Also, almost two thirds of the voters, 63%, say that the economy is getting worse to only 33% better. This is a sorry slide from the optimism of June 2021 when the majority, 50%, said the economy was getting better.
Even more distressing, 81% of all voters say that they have been significantly impacted by inflation, including 43% who say that with inflation and higher prices they are struggling to keep up and afford the basic necessities.
This is a stunning number for the greatest country on earth.
And it’s Biden’s fault. 69% of all voters disagree with President Biden when he says we have quote — "zero inflation."
Only 25% agree. It’s not only Biden’s fault, but he’s in denial and fooling no one.
The generic congressional ballot has improved for the Republicans that they went from a 45%-45% tie with the Democrats last month to a four point lead this month — 48%, Republican, 44%, Democrat.
However, the 8% who are undecided should break for Republicans.
Among the undecided, 74% say the country on the wrong track and 68% disapprove of the job Biden is doing.
However, these undecided voters are 66% prochoice, two-thirds are women, and their average age is younger at 44 years. Inflation is their top issue, but while Democrats focus on abortion, Republicans must focus more on inflation and Biden.
President Biden’s job approval improved this month to 48% approve, while 50% disapprove. Biden had a 60% disapprove in July; 55% disapprove in August.
It’s important to note that our interviews finished the day before the stock market took a significant downturn and economic pessimism may have reignited Biden’s disapproval rating again. Prior to that, Biden’s improvement came from Democrats and his 2020 voters, where his job approval rose to 86% and 83%, respectively.
Biden Democrats alone cannot save the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate and more importantly a Republican "issue offensive" to increase Biden’s job disapproval rating will sink the Democrats.
Vice President Kamala Harris remains a significant net negative — 44% favorable, 52% unfavorable.
The vice president will be seeing more foreign trips before election day.
U.S. House Speaker Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., remains very unpopular — 38% favorable, 55% unfavorable.
Only 40% of all voters say that America is better off because of Joe Biden and Speaker Pelosi’s programs and policies. 49% say America is worse off.
Big government socialism remains a very unpopular concept — particularly as inflation rises. The highest number ever, 67% of the voters, prefer free market capitalism over big government socialism 14%. An even stronger majority, 75%, favor equal opportunity capitalism over big government socialism 10%.
Economic issues 45%, including reducing inflation 20% and improving the economy 13%, dominate importance to the voters. Social issues, including abortion at 6%, are only 28%.
In a question suggested by our friend Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow, 71% of all voters support significant reductions to federal spending in order to stop inflation.
Only 13% oppose. 82% of Trump 2020 voters support reducing spending to stop inflation, as do 61% of Biden 2020 voters. Stopping inflation unites the vast majority of voters.
Looking to 2024, President Biden has not significantly improved his position for re-election. Among Democratic primary voters only 27% would vote for Joe Biden, almost three quarters do not.
Michelle Obama receives 16%, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., 7%, Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton at 6% each, and all the others even less — including Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., at a mere 2%. Without Joe Biden, Michelle Obama gets 18%, Kamala Harris 11%, Hillary Clinton 9%, Sen. Sanders 7%, and all others even less.
Unlike the Democratic leadership vacuum, the 2024 Republican nomination is dominated by President Trump. Among Republican primary voters, 71%, want Trump to run again in 2024; if Trump runs, they will support him 86% to 11%; and in a crowded field of 12 candidates, Trump leads by a wide margin 55% to DeSantis 18%, Pence 6% and all others at 2% or less, including Liz Cheney: 2%.
Without Trump, no one gets a majority and the leaders are: Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., 31%, Donald Trump, Jr 19%, Mike Pence 11%, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, 6%, and all others 3% or less.
Even though this poll is modeled after the 2020 election, Donald Trump beats Joe Biden decisively 49% to 45% and beats Kamala Harris in a landslide 51% to 42%.
The 2022 midterm madness is upon us.
The Biden big government socialists are fighting for their majorities. The Republicans must fight to take them away and restore America to the right direction. 41 days.
Please see the National Survey and Political Environment Analysis Likely General Election Voters Presented by: John McLaughlin On the Web www.mclaughlinonline.com
John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.
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