Tags: 2018 Midterm Elections | 2020 Elections | Hillary Clinton | Michael Flynn | Mitt Romney | congress | flake

2020 GOP Win Happens If Never Trumpers Step Aside

Next GOP presidential win can happen if dc insiders and others step aside

(Photovs/Dreamstime)

By    |   Thursday, 20 December 2018 01:58 PM

The results of our latest national survey of 1,000 likely 2020 presidential year voters, conducted between Dec. 10-14, show that even with all the media bias and attacks on the president, really not much has changed since our postelection poll of 1,000 people voting on Nov. 6 of this year.

However, we view this as not good for the GOP establishment, precisely because much of the actual voter results and subsequent postelection poll results indicate that the GOP establishment is a millstone to President Trump’s agenda and his re-election.

Consider, that out of the record 118 million votes cast nationally in the November mid-terms the Republicans lost the national vote for Congress by almost 10 million votes, 53 to 45 percent.

The U.S. House Republican national vote was only 51 million votes.

This is 12 million votes less than President Trump received in 2016.

In comparison, the House Democratic national vote was 61 million — only 5 million less than Hillary Clinton received. Without President Trump on the ballot and the Republican Congress as the main event, more Trump voters stayed home.

Also, while President Trump won a historic decisive electoral victory in 2016 by winning the popular vote in key battleground states, this year the House Republicans lost the popular vote in five critical Trump states — Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Currently D.C. insiders among the GOP establishment are second guessing that the president should have campaigned only on the economy and spent too much time discussing securing the border and fixing immigration.

It seems to be shallow spin that ignores the reality of the election results and the polls.

It seems especially fallacious since the GOP majority failed to pass a healthcare plan, but had their members vote for a healthcare plan that didn’t cover preexisting conditions.

They didn’t pass an immigration plan, because they kept adding provisions for amnesty and not funding the wall. They failed to take any action on the president’s infrastructure plan and other issues favored by Trump voters.

Furthermore, in this year’s elections, the Democrats two most salient campaign issue attacks against Republicans were that the GOP raised middle class taxes and were taking away healthcare from people with pre-existing conditions. That’s right, the Washington Democrats who gave us the unpopular Obamacare and many who were running on actually raising taxes, were able to beat Republicans on healthcare and taxes. The Democrats used the Republican congress limiting state and local tax deductions to only $10,000 as a weapon against the Republicans which made it harder for Republicans to take advantage of the strong Trump economy and the tax issue. As a result of the GOP Congress limiting the SALT deductions, currently only approximately one of five voters say their taxes went down as a result of the tax cuts.

Now as the establishment Republicans abandon the president’s call to build a wall to secure the border in order to keep the government open until Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and the Democratic House majority are sworn in, we face the future prospect of even fewer Trump voters voting Republican in 2020.

Comparing our December national poll with our November postelection poll, here’s where we are:

  • President Trump’s job approval rating was 48 percent in November. It’s 48 percent now. His job disapproval is slightly higher at 51 percent. Reviewing our past polls, the president had been a net positive until the Republicans lost the healthcare debate, failing to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017. The president improved this year, but President Trump needs to expand his base and go over 50 percent job approval to win reelection. The last two reelected Presidents (Bush and Obama) had 51 percent job approvals on election day and won with 51 percent of the popular vote.

  • In contrast the Republican majority in Congress has only a 42 percent job approval rating and 50 percent disapproval. This is significantly worse than the 45 percent job approval and 49 percent disapproval back in November. They remain less popular than the president which accounted for their falling short of re-engaging 2016 Trump voters. In fact, 16 percent of 2016 Trump voters disapprove of the job the Republican majority is doing.

  • As a result, the Democrats lead the Republicans in the generic ballot for Congress 47 percent to 43 percent.

  • Although the share of voters saying that the country is headed in the right direction is higher than before President Trump was elected, currently at 41 percent, the wrong track share remains higher at 52 percent.

  • The majority, 52 percent, favors smaller government with fewer services, while 31 percent prefer larger government with many services. In November they preferred smaller government 49 percent to 32 percent.

  • President Trump keeps a commanding lead in a potential Republican primary with 72 percent of the vote over Mitt Romney's nine percent, John Kasich's five percent and Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., at two percent. 

  • In contrast the Democratic primary remains a free for all with the leaders being Bernie Sanders 18 percent, Joe Biden 17 percent, Michelle Obama at 16 percent, Beto O’Rourke with 11 percent, and Hillary Clinton at nine percent.

As the Mueller investigation into alleged Russian collusion grinds on for its second year, with the prosecutions of Michael Cohen, Gen. Michael Flynn, and others emerging daily — if not with the hourly headlines — we asked the voters, "From what you have seen or read, have the Democrats and media produced any evidence that President Trump had the presidential election fixed by the Russians?" Only 32 percent of all voters answered, "Yes," — 58 percent of Democrats; 25 percent of Independents and 11 percent of Republicans.

Furthermore, as the Democrats prepare to embark on the impeachment of President Trump, a two to one majority, 53 percent to 28 percent, of all voters agreed that it’s a "partisan political ploy to stop President Trump." 82 percent to eight percent of Republicans agreed; 48 percent to 28 percent of Independents agreed — and even 29 percent of Democrats agreed.

Trends remaining as a concern are: 

  • Ironically as the Republicans failed to make good on their promise to change and move away from the policies of President Obama, they have lost the change message that won the election in 2016. Currently an equal number of voters 44 percent would continue the policies of President Obama while 44 percent favor change. Back on Nov. 6 they actually preferred continuing Obama’s policies: 47 percent to 44 percent.

  • In November the majority of voters (59 percent) said that the economy was getting better, while 33percent said it was getting worse. However, now with the Democrats controlling the House and interest rates rising, only 48 percent say better and 40 percent say worse.

  • Another irony came when we asked the voters: "As a result of President Trump and Congress’ tax cut plan, did your taxes go up, go down, or remain about the same?" Only 21 percent said down. An almost equal group said their taxes went up — 19 percent. While the plurality (40 percent) said their taxes remained the same and 21 percent didn’t know. Considering the Republican House losses in states and suburbs where voters were more likely to take advantage of the now capped or eliminated state and local tax deduction, this result shows why the Republican tax cut was ineffective in holding the House majority.

Other media studies reinforce this result: 

With these results the Republicans need to take a hard and honest look at the results to identify what’s wrong and make the necessary changes to win in Nov. 2020. They can’t just spin away the 2018 results and these current poll results.

The fact is President Trump led us to a decisive and historic 2016 victory based on message and issues. This year, in election day poll, six in 10 voters, 59 percent, did not think the Republican majority had a compelling message for re-election.

Although the Republicans gained U.S. Senate seats primarily because the vast majority of those senate seats at stake were in states that President Trump won, we should have gained even more seats and the loss of the House majority was really self-inflicted. It’s time the D.C. insiders, Never Trumpers who have spent the last two years boxing out the loyal Trump supporters who helped him win the 2016 election, step aside and let us restore and broaden the Trump voter coalition to win again in 2020.

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. Last year John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day.

Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. He also serves as a consultant and market research strategist to Fortune 500 companies. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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McLaughlin
It’s time the D.C. insiders, Never Trumpers who have spent the last two years boxing out the loyal Trump supporters who helped him win the 2016 election, step aside and let us restore and broaden the Trump voter coalition to win again in 2020.
congress, flake, pelosi, senate
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2018-58-20
Thursday, 20 December 2018 01:58 PM
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