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2020 Post Election Poll Analysis of an Election Like No Other

2020 Post Election Poll Analysis of an Election Like No Other


John McLaughlin By and Thursday, 12 November 2020 12:34 PM EST Current | Bio | Archive

As we have done, every two years in federal elections, since 1994, we once again conducted a post-election poll of 1,000 actual voters online who either voted early or on election day.

The survey had an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.

The voters were interviewed on Nov. 2-3.

This being an election year like no other that we have ever seen, President Trump and America faced the challenges of impeachment, a global pandemic, depression level unemployment, a breakdown of law and order with rioting and looting, bitter media bias, big tech censorship — and now an extremely close election count, and probable recounts, where the media has proclaimed Joe Biden the winner prior to the legal state certification of the votes.

Even as we write this analysis four key battleground states — Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania with a combined 57 critical electoral votes — have collectively provided a margin of less than 95,000 votes out of an estimated 158 million cast.

This is only 6 one hundredths of a percent of the entire vote.

Full disclosure  we worked for President Trump in 2016 and in 2020.

Since the coronavirus pandemic hit America, we have been saying for months that it would be a very close election and the President could win the election.

Today, "close" seems to be a gross understatement.

However, all during the year it earned us the derision and enmity of the anti-Trump, liberal, mainstream media. As we challenged their biased anti-Trump polling for under polling Republicans and Trump voters, we were repeatedly attacked. Even CNN’s Chris Cuomo and CNN’s legal counsel (appropriately named David Vigilante) defended their skewed and biased polling by peronally attacking our firm.

Among the most egregious examples, CNN manufactured a national poll in June by saying that the President was losing by 14 points — 55% to 41%.

Right before election day CNN doubled down on the same methodology and their final October national poll said the president would lose in a landslide by 12 points — 54% to 42%.

Our main battle with media and Democratic pollsters was that their polls among adults or registered voters had polled only 26%, 25% or even fewer Republicans in their samples.

The 2016 media exit polls and the 2018 exit polls both had Republicans at 33% to 37% Democrat. Many of their so called polling experts defended the lack of Republicans in the polls.

Ironically, their 2020 exit poll now says the actual national electorate was 36% Republican and 37% Democrats!

It was pretty clear to us that they were under polling the Republicans and Trump voters to create media narrative that the president was losing badly and would lose the election in a "Biden landslide" and "blue wave" to discourage President Trump’s supporters and voters.

They seemed to know that the president’s voters preferred to vote in person and that Joe Biden’s voters would prefer to vote early by mail.

If they could discourage our vote from actually showing up on election day, their predictions would have come true and their polls would be right.

Our post- election poll showed that only one third, 36%, of the voters, voted on election day. Among the election day voters, they voted for President Trump 62% to 36%.

Among the two thirds, 64% who voted early before election day by mail, drop-off or in person, they voted for Joe Biden 58% to 40%.

Breaking apart those who voted early in person, they were almost evenly split Biden 51% - Trump 49%.

However, it's clear if President Trump had not had a strong turnout on Election Day, there would have been a Biden blue wave. President Trump, after recovering from the virus, rebounded with a very, strong debate performance, a strong contrast against Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., on the issues, and daily vigorous campaigning defying the biased media polls that had forecast a double digit loss for him.

President Trump won among voters who decided their ballot before Labor Day or in the last week.

  • Voters who decided their vote before Labor Day voted for President Trump 51 - 49%. (60% of all voters).
  • Voters who decided their vote in the last week preferred Trump 58% - 40%. (10% of all voters.)

Joe Biden won among voters who decided their vote in September or October.

  • Voters who decided after Labor Day in September – Biden won 61% to 38%. (14 % of all voters.)
  • Voters who decided their vote in October before the last week voted for Biden --- 52% to 44% (15% of all voters.)

Candidates for Congress were strongly tied to the top of their respective tickets.

  • Voters who voted for Republicans for Congress voted for Trump 91% - 9%. (48% of all voters.)
  • Voters who voted for Democrats for Congress voted for Joe Biden 92% - 7%. (48% of all voters.)

Fortunately for Joe Biden almost three in ten voters, 27% of all voters, were not aware of the alleged corruption charges against Joe Biden.

  • Voters who were aware of Joe Biden’s corruption, voted for President Trump 55% - 44%. (73% of all voters.)
  • Voters who were not aware of Joe Biden’s family corruption voted for Biden 66% - 31%. (27% of all voters.)

Had more voters felt the U.S. was headed in the right direction, it would have benefited President Trump.

  • Voters who said the U.S. is headed in the right direction voted for the President, 84% - 14%. (40% of all voters.)
  • Voters who said the U.S. was on the wrong track voted for Biden 74% - 24%. (59% of all voters.)

President Trump’s personality was more of a vote determinant than his job approval.

Among the 49% of the voters who were favorable to President Trump, they voted for him 89% to 10%. Among the 50% who were unfavorable to president, they voted for Biden 89 % to 10%.

This is an almost perfect inverse relationship.

  • Voters who approve of the job the president is doing, they voted for him 86% - 12 percent. (53% of all voters approved of the job the president is doing.)
  • Voters who disapprove of the job the president is doing, they voted for Biden 93%  – 6%. (47% of all voters disapprove of the job the president is doing.)
  • Fully 7% of all voters approved the job the president was doing but did not vote for him. Instead 88% of that group voted for Biden. So you could like the job the president was doing, but some voted for Biden.
  • Voters who were favorable to both Trump and Biden, voted for Trump 61% - 36 %. (They were 10% of all voters.) If you liked Trump, it didn’t matter you liked Biden, because most voted for Trump.
  • Voters who are unfavorable to both Trump and Biden, voted Biden 52% - 38%. (They were 8% of all voters.). If you disliked Trump and Biden chances are you voted for Biden, because your dislike of Trump was more dominant.

Therefore, the key appears to be if you liked Trump you voted for him.

If you disliked him, you voted for Biden — even though you may like the job that Trump is doing.

By party affiliation Republicans voted for President Trump 89% to 10%.

Democrats voted for an identical Biden 89% to 10%. Independents were evenly split Trump 48%, Biden 49%. Independent men voted for Trump slightly 50% - 46%.

Independent women slightly preferred Biden 50% - 47%.

By ideology liberals chose Biden 82% - 16%. Moderates supported Biden 62% - 36%.

However, conservatives voted for Trump 85% - 15%.

Anti-abortion voters supported Trump 64% - 34%.

Pro-abortion rights voters voted for Biden 65% - 34%.

Married voters went for Trump 56% - 42%.

Single voters voted for Biden 65% - 33%.

Protestants voted for Trump 53% - 36%.

Catholics were slightly favored Trump 50% to 48% for Biden.

Evangelicals chose Trump 62% - 36%; white Evangelicals voted Trump 79% - 19%.

All voters who regularly attend church or religious services voted for Trump 53% - 45%.

Voters who do not regularly attend services chose Biden 54% - 45%.

For Joe Biden who says he’s a practicing Catholic, his fellow practicing Catholics who attend church voted for Trump 54% - 43%, while non-church going Catholics voted for Biden 53% - 46%.

Veteran households voted for Trump 57% to 42%.

Active military households voted for Trump 59% to 38%. But labor union households including teachers and public service unions preferred Biden 50% to 46%.

The gender gap we saw among independent voters defined the overall gender gap:

Among all men they voted for Trump 53% - 45%.

Women voted for Biden 54% - 44%.

Working men voted for Trump 55% - 43%.

Working women went for Biden 54% - 45%. Retired men voted for Trump 53% - 46%.

Retired women voted Biden 51% - 48%.

By race white voters voted for Trump 59% to 40%. Hispanics voted for Biden 64%, but Trump received 32%. Black voters voted for Biden 81%, but 18% voted for Trump.

There was a significant generational gap with Biden winning voters under 40, 57% - 41%. Trump won middle age voters ages 41-55, 53% - 45%, and voters over 55 years, 51% - 48%.

Among investor class voters who have 401k, IRA or retirement savings, Trump won 51 % to 47% while Biden won amongnon-investors 55% - 44%.

Urban voters voted for Biden 56% - 42%. Suburban voters were close, Biden 51% - Trump 47%. Small town, rural voters voted strongly for Trump 60% - 40%.

When Trump voters were asked what the single most important reason that they voted for President Trump, 55% of the answers were related to the president’s character and personal traits. 37% were related to issues. The leading responses were: stand on the economy 13%, dislike Biden/Harris 10%, good/like 9%, good job/record 6%, good views/positions 5%, MAGA/Patriotic 5%, and dislike socialism 5%.

The overwhelming support was more a positive vote for Trump, 84%, rather than a negative vote against Biden only 15%.

When Biden votes were asked the single most important reason that they voted for Joe Biden, 74% cited a character or personality related trait, mostly anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden. Only 21% cited an issue. Leading responses why they voted for Biden were: disliked Trump 32%, Biden better choice 6%, Covid/pandemic 6%, honesty/character 6% and for the people 5%.

Only six in ten of Biden’s voters, 61%, said their vote was more a positive vote for Biden, while almost four in ten, 37% said their vote was more a negative vote against Trump.

The Biden campaign did a better job running a negative campaign against the president than the president’s campaign did against Joe Biden. The paid television advertising advantage of the Biden campaign and biased media coverage drove this result.

Regarding the vote for Congress, it appears that the Republicans were able to gain seats due the foundation that President Trump provided Republican candidates for the House. Trump voters voted Republican for Congress 90% - 7%, while Biden voters went for Democrats 89% - 8%.

Although Biden has a lead in the national popular vote, when the voters were asked: "Regardless of your vote for president who do you think most of your friends and neighbors voted for?", an even 50% said most of their friends and neighbors voted for Trump while 50%said they voted for Biden. Notably 12% of the Biden voters and 15% of the Democrats said most of their friends voted for Trump.

On Election Day, before the polls closed, 70% of all voters said that the election would be decided honestly. However, 30% thought that there was significant fraud in the election. Trump voters were more likely to believe that there was fraud, 38%.

Only 22% of Biden voters though there was fraud.

Among Republicans, 37% and Independents 34%, were more likely to think there was significant fraud. Only 20% of Democrats thought that there was fraud. Voters who voted in person on election day, 35%, and voters who voted early in person, 39%, were more likely to say that there was fraud. Voters who voted early by mail only 20% said there was fraud.

Suspicions of fraud seems to have been higher among those who preferred to vote in person.

Among all voters they split the blame for fraud evenly between the parties – Republicans 51%, Democrats 49%. However, it will be interesting how post-election developments may change this perception.

On election day voters’ opinions of President Trump were evenly split 49% favorable, 50 % unfavorable. Joe Biden was a net positive 52% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Mike Pence was a net favorable 49% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

Kamala Harris was slightly net positive 47% favorable, 43% unfavorable.

Speaker Pelosi was a huge negative only 36% favorable, 54% unfavorable while socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., is widely known by 89% of all voters and is a net negative 31% favorable to 42% unfavorable.

Among all voters six in ten, 61% say they are better off now than four years ago.

Only 38% say that they are worse off.

Trump voters were more likely to say that they were better off 85% - 15%.

Biden voters said that they were worse off today 60%, but 39% said better off.

Fully 20% of all voters thought they were better off today than four years ago and did not vote for President Trump. It seems that there were not enough voters who believed that they would be worse off under Joe Biden going forward.

The majority thought that President Trump would do a better job rebuilding the economy 54 percent – 46 percent and restoring law and order 52 % - 48%.

However, the majority thought that Joe Biden would do a better job: uniting America and improving race relations 55% - 45%, dealing with the Coronavirus 55% - 45%, and restoring honesty and integrity to government 53% - 47%.

The majority blamed the Democrats for rioting, looting and unrest in our cities 54% to 45 % who blamed Republicans. Trump voters blamed the Democrats 81% - 19% and 28 %of Biden voters blamed the Democrats as well.

The majority preferred free market capitalism 76% over big government socialism 24%. Trump voters were more supportive of capitalism 85% – 15% and Biden voters preferred capitalism 67% - 32%.

The majority also favored smaller government with fewer services 53% over larger government with more services 46%. Trump voters favored smaller government 68% to 31 % while Biden voters prefer larger government 61% to 37%.

Regarding the economy 59 percent think that the economy is still in recession, while 41% say it’s not. However, voters are more closely split in their perception that it’s getting better 48% to getting worse 52%. Trump voters say that the economy is getting better 75% - 25 %, while Biden voters believe the economy is getting worse 77% - 23%.

Almost half the voters, 48%, say that the media coverage was unfair and biased against President Trump. Only 36% said the media coverage of the race was fair and not biased and only 16% said that it was unfair and biased against Joe Biden.

85% of Trump voters say that the media coverage was unfair and biased against him.

Looking ahead to the presidential primaries in 2024 without either President Trump or Joe Biden, the Republicans are strongly the party of Trump and the Democrats are the party of Obama. These are the base of their parties. When Democratic primary voters were asked their preference for 2024, the leading candidates are Michelle Obama 25%, Kamala Harris 18%, Pete Buttigieg 8%, Andrew Cuomo 8% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6% with others getting less and undecided at 28%.

Among Republicans the leaders are clearly tied to President Trump, Mike Pence 30% and Donald Trump, Jr., 20%, followed by Nikki Haley 8%, Ted Cruz 5% and Mitt Romney 5%.

Others received fewer votes and 21% were undecided.

Three in ten voters, 29%, followed the president on Twitter, Facebook or Instagram and they voted for the president 60% - 37%.

If they do not follow the president on social media they voted for Biden 55% - 44%.

The majority, 52%, watched or followed news reports of the president’s rallies and they voted for President Trump 66% -  33%. Four in 10 voters, 39%, never watched or followed the president’s rallies and they voted for Biden 76%  - 23%.

Without question 2016 was a consequential historic election. The 2020 campaign has proven to be even more historic and the ultimate result will be even more consequential.

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 35 years. During this time he has earned a reputation for helping some of America’s most successful corporations and winning some of the toughest elections in the nation. His political clients have included former Presidential candidates Steve Forbes and Fred Thompson, former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal and 22 current and former U.S. Senators and 21 current Republican members of Congress. In 2016, John worked as an advisor and pollster for Donald Trump from the primaries through Election Day. Their firm currently polls for the Trump Pence re-election campaign.

Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. President, Prime Ministers, a Senate Majority Leader, and a Speaker of the House. Jim has worked for over 70 members of Congress, 14 U.S. Senators, 10 governors, numerous mayors and scores of other elected officials. Read Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.

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Without question 2016 was a consequential historic election. The 2020 campaign has proven to be even more historic and the ultimate result will be even more consequential.
men, women, catholics, evangelicals
Thursday, 12 November 2020 12:34 PM
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