French President Emmanuel Macron is facing trying times.
Last week, the French government fell with a resounding thud that could well reverberate across Europe.
The shortest serving PM ever
After losing a vote of no confidence, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier submitted his resignation, adding to the political turmoil in which the country is embroiled.
In response to an attempt to railroad through legislation relating to the annual budget, Left-leaning lawmakers called a no-confidence motion, to see it go through last Wednesday with the support of the right-wing National Rally.
The Barnier government is the first French government to lose a no-confidence motion since 1962, and Barnier himself is now set to become France’s shortest-serving prime minister ever.
With the collapse of the government, calls for Macron himself to resign began to pour in, with some suggesting that his resignation could break the deadlock.
However, a defiant Macron has vowed to serve out his elected term that ends in 2027, although some have suggested that the crisis could signal the onset of the twilight of his political career.
Biblical justice?
In Israel, few will view Macron’s tribulations with sorrow. Indeed, many might see it as poetic — even biblical — justice.
After all, Frances's recent behavior toward the Jewish state has hardly been that of a friend or ally.
Indeed, I recently posted several articles detailing the unscrupulous nature of Macron's foreign policy in the Middle East including a growing alignment with Iran on certain issues and a disturbing coziness with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Paris was willing to turn a blind eye to the brutal activities of the Iranian proxy terror group in return for a lucrative construction contract with a Macron associate.
Moreover, not only has Paris encouraged an arms embargo against Israel, berated it for “sowing barbarism” in Gaza, and barred Israel firms from participating in prestigious arms exhibitions in France, but it also declared that France would honor the scandalous ICC warrants issued for the arrest of both Israel’s Prime Minister and Defense Minister — supposedly to respect the “independence” of the ICC and uphold France’s “international obligations”
Thus, even PM Barnier pontificated pompously that France "will rigorously apply the obligations incumbent upon it" in terms of international law — an ostensibly high-minded position that Paris soon abandoned.
France flip-flops
Yet despite its acute anti-Israel bias, France nevertheless expressed its wish to participate in the multi-nation committee monitoring the newly-brokered Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement.
Israel’s initial response was to oppose French membership in the monitoring committee. Later however, it dropped its opposition to France’s participation following Paris’ recanting — or at least fudging — its initial position on the ICC warrants — asserting that the provisions for immunity from ICC prosecution apply to Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders.
This hasty reversal underscored once again the unprincipled, cynical nature of French foreign policy and its willingness to trade alleged moral values for political influence and material gain. Indeed, Israel may yet rue its decision to permit French participation in the monitoring mechanism.
Thus, within days of the signing of the November 27 ceasefire agreement, France reported dozens of alleged Israeli violations when the IDF reacted to Hezbollah breaches without going through the channels laid out in the deal — which prime facie, appear too time-consuming to facilitate an effective IDF response to unfolding Hezbollah threats (e.g., a crew preparing to launch rockets into Israel).
A new sheriff in town
Given past French anti-Israel animus — and covert commitments of leniency toward Hezbollah — it is more than likely that, should the ceasefire break down, France will rush to blame Israel, regardless of any role Hezbollah might have in precipitating the collapse.
Two recent developments, however, may result in a future very different from the past, with Macron finding himself — and France — very firmly on the wrong side of history.
The one is the election of Donald Trump, who during his last term, demonstrated that he is unequivocally predisposed toward Israel. Indeed, if anything, indications are that he is likely to be even more pro-Israel in his second term — given the team he has appointed to key positions in his administration, which could hardly have been more supportive of the Jewish state.
Moreover, Trump and Macron are liable to find themselves at loggerheads not only on matters of substance where Macron seems closer to the pro-Hamas woke opponents of Trump than to the president-elect himself, but also on matters of style where Macon’s manipulative sophistry is likely to clash with Trump’s earthy, down-to-earth commonsense.
Backing a losing horse?
The second major development is the collapse of the pro-Hezbollah Assad regime. The loss of its Syrian prop and in particular the conduit for arms from an increasingly beleaguered Iran is likely to make the Shia terror organization a considerably less formidable specter, and accelerate its dwindling popularity within the Lebanese population.
The changing Mideast fortunes are liable to leave the French President backing a losing horse and facing the bitterness of a population long held hostage by his favored — but now vanquished — accomplices.
Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defense establishment. He is the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defense & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project. Read Martin Sherman's Reports — More Here.
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