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Tags: mega-states | reapportionment | census

Census Count Results in Implausible Reapportionment for Mega-States

Census Count Results in Implausible Reapportionment for Mega-States
(Paul Sancya,/AP)

By Wednesday, 12 May 2021 11:15 AM Current | Bio | Archive

Late last month, four months after the statutory deadline, the Census Bureau finally released the populations, as of April 1, 2020, for the 50 states, and their number of congressional seats.

Texas’ population exploded from 25,146,000 in 2010 to 29,183,000 in 2020, a 4,037,000, or 18%, increase.

Florida’s population skyrocketed from 18,801,000 to 21,571,000, a 2,770,000, or 15%, increase.

Between April 2010 and April 2020, the population of the 50 states edged up by 7%, from 308,144,000 to 330,760,000 or by 22,616,000 residents.

Thus, the combined growth of Texas and Florida is 6,807,000, or a humungous 30% of the nation’s increase.

Each congressional seat in this year’s reapportionment should have 761,000 residents, the quotient when 331 million is divided by the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

On April 26, the Census Bureau announced that seven states each lost one seat: California, now has 52 seats; New York, 26; Illinois and Pennsylvania, 17 each; Ohio, 15; Michigan, 13; and West Virginia, 2.

Five states gained one congressional seat: Florida now has 28; North Carolina, 14; Colorado, 8; Oregon, 6; and Montana, 2.

Texas has added two seats, to 38.

But how does Texas, whose population soared by 4.04 million residents, receive only two more House seats?

And how does Florida, whose population jumped by 2.77 million, receive only one more seat?

One reason for these disturbing anomalies, as I documented in Newsmax articles on April 29 and May 4, is that Texas and Florida, the two Republican mega-states, had suspiciously low population growths between July 1, 2019 and April 1, 2020 (Census Day).

While Texas’ population soared from 25.1 million on April 1, 2010, to 29.0 million on July 1, 2019, a 3.9 million gain, or approximately 425,000 annually, the Census Bureau expects Americans to believe that the Lone Star State’s population edged-up just 187,000 in the nine months between July 1, 2019 and April 1, 2020.

But extrapolating Texas’ annual growth of 425,000 residents, between April 1, 2010, and April 1, 2019, equals 319,000 over the next nine months, until April 1, 2020.

And adding these 319,000 missing Texans, to the 28,996,000 on July 1, 2019, brings the Lone Star State’s population on Census Day to 29,315,000.

Dividing this total by 761,000 per House seat yields 38.5 seats, which should be rounded up to 39 seats, or three more than the 36 seats in 2010.

By contrast, if we divide Texas’ official Census population of 29,183,000 residents on April 1, 2020, by 761,000, the result is just 38.3 congressional seats, which rounds-down to the allotted 38.

Similarly, between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2019, Florida’s population jumped from 18,801,000 to 21,478,000, or 2,677,000 residents, or 292,000 annually.

Extrapolating this annual growth, for the next nine months until April 1, 2020, yields 219,000 additional Floridians. If added to the state’s population of 21,478,000, on July 1, 2019, brings the state’s population to 21,697,000 on Census Day.

Then dividing this total by 761,000 persons per congressional seat gives 28.5 seats, which rounds up to 29, or two more than in 2010.

But, as with Texas, the Census Bureau is preposterously reporting that, between July 1, 2019, and April 1, 2020, the Sunshine State’s population nudged-up by just 94,000 residents, to 21,571,000.

Divide this total by 761,000, and you get 28.3 seats, or 28 seats, and not the 29 Florida should be entitled to.

Arizona is the third Republican mega-state that should have been awarded one more seat in the highly suspicious 2021 reapportionment. Between April 1, 2010, and July 1, 2019, its population soared by 887,000 residents: from 6,392,000 to 7,279,000, or 97,000 annually.

Calculating this 97,000-yearly increase for the nine months between July 1, 2019, and April 1, 2020, yields 73,000.

If we add these missing Arizonians, to the 7,279,000 counted in July 2019, the sum is 7,352,000, which if divided by 761,000, yields 9.7 seats, which rounds up to 10 seats, and not the allotted 9 seats.

However, the demographically-inept Census Bureau is reporting that Arizona’s population dropped by 120,000, from 7,279,000 to 7,159,000, between July 2019 and April 2020.

Dividing this total by 761,000 per congressional seat yields 9.4 seats, which rounds down to 9 seats.

At the same time that the Census Bureau is claiming slow growth, or population losses since July 2019, in these and other Republican states — including Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Wyoming — it is reporting an implausible combined gain of 1.63 million residents in five Democratic mega-states — New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey – whose populations stagnated or declined between 2010 and 2019.

Let’s take New York’s highly suspicious population explosion of 762,000 between July 1, 2019, and April 1, 2020: from 19,454,000 to 20,216,000. But between July 2015 and July 2019, New York’s population shrank from 19,655,000 to 19,433,000, or by 222,000 residents.

Between July 2018 and July 2019, the population of the former Empire State, declined by 76,000. Thus, New York's population can be more realistically pegged at 19,350,000 on April 1, 2020.

Divide this total by the 761,000 residents, for each of the 435 congressional seats, yields 25.4 seats, which rounds down to 25, and not the 26 seats it is currently allotted.

In conclusion, these four mega-states aren’t the only ones with flawed reapportionment allocations this year.

Mark Schulte is a retired New York City schoolteacher and mathematician who has written extensively about science and the history of science. Read Mark Schulte's Reports — More Here.

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MarkSchulte
These four mega-states aren’t the only ones with flawed reapportionment allocations this year. ...
mega-states, reapportionment, census
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2021-15-12
Wednesday, 12 May 2021 11:15 AM
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