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Tags: Covid19

No Second Major Wave of COVID-19 Deaths

bar graph showing downward trend of coronavirus
(Jk Sulit/Dreamstime)

Mark Schulte By Tuesday, 23 June 2020 01:07 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

On Friday, June 12, one day after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1,861 points, or 7%, on investor fears of a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, Larry Kudlow, President Donald Trump's economic adviser, told Fox News there won't be a "second wave." Admitting he was not a "health expert," Kudlow said he was relying on unnamed top coronavirus epidemiologists.

The Center for Disease Control releases every weekday provisional coronavirus death totals, and they strongly suggest Americans will not suffer, in the second half of 2020, the approximately 112,000 that will be recorded by the agency on June 30.

According to the CDC, the provisional death toll from COVID-19, between Jan. 26 and June 22, 2020, is 105,992. The following table demonstrates how the fatality-doubling rate has remarkably slowed in America between early April and late June:

Week Ending Total Deaths Increase
4/4/20 13,165
4/11/20 28,817 119%
4/25/20 59,104 105%
6/17/20 103,339 75%

In other words, in early April, the death rate doubled in less than one week. Then, from April 11, it took slightly less than two weeks for the death rate to double.

But in the nearly two months between April 25 and June 22, the death rate had slowed dramatically to a 79% increase. Moreover, between May 30 and June 20, the provisional fatality total edged up from 101,605 to 105,992, or a very encouraging 4.2% increase.

The CDC updates these daily and weekly fatality totals, from Mondays through Fridays, as official death certificates are forwarded by state health departments. Since these totals include both confirmed and probable deaths, the data must be understood as being scientifically imprecise.

Nevertheless, my prediction is that the next doubling, when provisional coronavirus deaths are 118,558, will be reached in July, or more than two months after April 25, when the total was 59,279.

By contrast, Dr. Ashish Jha, director of Harvard's Global Health Institute, claimed in a June 10 interview that COVID-19 deaths would likely reach 200,000 in September.

I disagree with Dr. Jha, and my counter-prediction is that, in the second half of 2020, there will not bean additional 88,000 coronavirus deaths, which, if added to the expected 112,000 deaths in the first half of this year, will yield 200,000 deaths.

The provisional statistics, from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, also document that in America there were "1,178,982 deaths from all causes," from Jan. 26 to June 22.

Furthermore, during these 148 days, there were 45,862 deaths involving COVID-19 and pneumonia, and 180,853 deaths involving pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19.

These granular death tolls reflect, as many doctors have insisted, that many decedents classified as COVID-19, had other co-morbidities. Thus, COVID-19 deaths cannot be disaggregated from other diseases that are leading causes of death for elderly Americans, including lung, heart, circulatory and kidney ailments.

But if you extrapolate for the entire year (365 days), from the 1,178,982 deaths counted by the CDC for the 148 days between Jan. 26 and June 22, you get 2,907,625 deaths.

In 2018, America had 2,839,205 deaths, so this would mean 68,420 additional deaths this year, or a 2.4% increase.

But I would further argue that the tsunami of 89,406 deaths from COVID-19, which occurred between March 21 and May 16, included many elderly decedents with serious medical problems, who might have died later this year, if the epidemic had not struck.

Consequently, my third prediction is, absent another unexpected public-health catastrophe, that in the second half of 2020, America will have approximately 1,410,000 deaths, which if added to the projected 1,430,000 deaths between Jan. 1 and June 30, equals 2,840,000 deaths.

If this prediction is accurate, America's death total in 2020 will be epidemiologically equal to the 2,839,205 deaths in 2018, or the 2,813,503 deaths in 2017.

The provisional CDC weekday fatality tallies also provide statistics by states, and my analysis of this data leads to another prediction: six states will have at least 5% more deaths in 2020 than in 2018:

State Death Total 1/26/20 to 6/22/20  Death Total 2018
New York 96,991 155,358
New Jersey 44,248 74,846
Massachusetts 30,159 58,803
Illinois 48,401 109,721
Maryland 23,160 49,926
Michigan 43,198 97,602

Undoubtedly, New York and New Jersey have the most horrendous records during the epidemic. However, the CDC's NYS total is 4,414 deaths more than the 24,739 counted on the NYS Department of Health's website as of midnight on June 22.

Moreover, on the NYCDOH's website, as of the afternoon of June 22, the nation's largest city and the epidemic's epicenter had 17,636 confirmed deaths and 4,685 probable deaths. These are two other examples of why the CDC's COVID-19 death tolls aren't scientifically pristine, and commentators on the epidemic should focus on total deaths in 2020, to accurately enumerate and extrapolate these grim fatalities.

Finally, most governors and mayors are not going "wobbly" (to quote Margaret Thatcher) by the latest wave of fake epidemiological COVID-19 reporting from the nefarious "Liberal Media," and they are not slowing down or reversing their robust re-openings.

The major laggard is New York City, where the two dystopian Democrats, Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, were publicly feuding about whether the nation's largest city should proceed with Phase 2 re-opening, which belatedly happened Monday, June 22.

Their decision was probably influenced by the New York City residents who have awakened from their media-narcotized "dogmatic slumber" (to quote Immanuel Kant), and who have been demanding that the mayor and governor expeditiously return the city to its normal, feverishly productive daily life.

Mark Schulte is a retired New City schoolteacher and mathematician who has written extensively about science and the history of science. Read Mark Schulte's Report's — More Here.

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My prediction is that the next doubling, when provisional coronavirus deaths are 118,208, will be reached at the end of June, or two months after April 25, when the total was 59,104.
Tuesday, 23 June 2020 01:07 PM
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