Mathematics and epidemiology are obviously not sleepy Joe Biden's forte, less than two months before his 78th birthday.
During the barroom brawl with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, the Democratic presidential nominee warned "we could lose as many as another 200,000 people [from COVID-19] between now and the end of the year."
But elsewhere in the raucous debate, the former vice president contradictorily claimed that currently "between 750 to 1,000 people are dying a day."
These daily coronavirus death tolls, if extrapolated for the remaining 92 days of this year, range between 69,000 and 92,000 deaths, or only between 35% and 46% of Biden's warning of 200,000 more deaths in the last three months of 2020.
Therefore, an additional 108,000 to 121,000 deaths would be required, or between 1,174 to 1,315 daily, to reach Biden's prediction of 200,000 fatalities between Sept. 29 and Dec. 31.
The former vice president also condemned President Trump during the debate for the "200,000 people that had died on his watch" from the SARS-2 virus.
However, this widely reported, yet not scientifically pristine, "200,000 deaths" occurred in the seven months between the beginning of March and the end of September, and they are highly unlikely to re-occur in the remaining three months of 2020, as these two tables demonstrate:
WEEK ENDING ON -- DEATHS
April 4 --- 10,016
April 11 --- 16,176
April 18 --- 17,057
April 25 --- 15,425
May 2 --- 13,139
May 9 --- 11,163
May 16 --- 9,158
(Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
The 49 days between March 28 and May 16 was the peak period of the coronavirus epidemic, with 92,134 deaths, or 47% of the 194,634 of the Americans who died in the eight months between February 2 and October 1.
The peak week, from April 12 to 18, there were 2,437 daily deaths.
This table shows the number of deaths in the 49 days between Aug. 1 and Sept. 19:
WEEK ENDING ON -- DEATHS
August 8 --- 7,524
August 15 --- 6,861
August 22 --- 5,868
August 29 --- 5,143
September 5 --- 4,225
September 12 --- 3,406
September 19 --- 2,074
Thus, the 49 days between August 1 and Sept. 19, had 35,101 fatalities, or 18% of the 194,634 total deaths.
However, these "CDC Provisional Death Tolls," which the federal agency characterizes as the most accurate, lag by several thousand deaths.
Adding 3,000 deaths for the last several weeks brings the latest seven-week total to 38,101 deaths, or 778 per day.
Indeed, this average matches the lower limit cited by Biden during the debate, that currently "between 750 and 1,000 Americans" are dying daily.
Two other coronavirus deaths tolls, one correct and one demagogic, were propagated by Joe Biden during the Sept. 29 debate, and they pertain to African Americans. The first was correct that "one in 1,000 African Americans has been killed because of the coronavirus."
As of Sept. 30, the CDC reports that African Americans were 20.8% of the 194,091 COVID-19 deaths, or 40,371 fatalities. Since African Americans were 13.4% of the 328,240,000 Americans on July 1, 2019, or 43,984,000, their death rate is indeed one per 1,000.
But after correctly alluding to this disproportionate coronavirus fatality rate for African Americans, Joe Biden then egregiously predicted:
"And if he doesn't do something quickly, by the end of the year, one in 500 will have be killed, one in 500 African Americans."
Thus, the former vice president was again demagogically predicting that in the next three months, America will suffer as many deaths as in the previous eight months.
For African Americans, this would mean another 40,000 SARS-2 deaths, which I, again, insist will not happen, based on the steep downward deaths trajectory during the last four and one-half months.
Moreover, the critical error of sending COVID-19 positive patients into long-term care facilities, which caused tens of thousands of deaths, and which was heavily committed by Andrew Cuomo of New York, Phil Murphy of New Jersey, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Ned Lamont of Connecticut and other Democratic governors, will not be repeated.
Two other major medical improvements, which will prevent a re-occurrence of the 92,134 deaths between late March and mid-May, are more effective treatment options and the use of proven therapeutic drugs.
Thirdly, the wide distribution of an effective and safe vaccine might also begin before the Dec. 31, 2020.
Finally, the bogus fake-checkers in the "Fake Liberal Media" have remained silent on Joe Biden's rabble-rousing predictions about a second wave of 200,000 coronavirus deaths, including 40,000 African-Americans.
But if President Trump had disseminated this "Fake Epidemiology," these partisan hacks would have gone beserk blabbering about what an unscientific moron he is.
Mark Schulte is a retired New City schoolteacher and mathematician who has written extensively about science and the history of science. Read Mark Schulte's Report's — More Here.
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