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Tags: climate | scientists | global | warming

Scientists Predict Colder Winters

Larry Bell By Monday, 30 December 2013 07:53 AM EST Current | Bio | Archive

If the notion of global warming has gotten you all hot and bothered, here’s something to really worry about. Some highly-credentialed and well-informed scientists are predicting that global temperatures won’t just continue to remain flat as they have for the past 17 years, but that they will get much colder and stay that way for a very long time.

Assuming they’re right, harsh winter temperatures and shorter growing seasons are nothing to wish for. Cold causes more disruptions for people than warming, and humanity has always prospered most during warmer periods.

As a chilling reminder, consider the brutal suffering of Washington’s troops at Valley Forge during the winter of 1776-77, and Napoleon’s frigid retreat from Moscow in 1812. Incidentally, those experiences occurred near the end of a “little ice age” which lasted from about 1300 to 1850, a period before the Industrial Revolution brought CO2-belching smokestacks and SUVs into the world.

Many prominent scientists attribute major shifts in climate to periodic fluctuations in solar activity evidenced by numbers of sunspots. Periods of reduced sunspot activity correlate with increased cloud-forming influences of cosmic rays. More clouds tend to make conditions cooler, while fewer often cause warming.

While solar output typically goes through 11-year cycles with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak, we are currently approaching the peak of “Cycle-24” with numbers running at 100 year low . . . less than half of those observed during other 20th century peaks. Average European temperatures fell by 2º Celsius during a weak “Dalton minimum” cycle between 1790 and 1830.

Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov who heads Russia’s prestigious Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg predicts that: “after the maximum of solar Cycle-24, from approximately 2014, we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a little ice age in 2055 plus or minus 11 years” (the 19th to occur in the past 7,500 years).

Dr. Abdussamatov points out that over the last 1,000 years deep cold periods have occurred five times. Each is correlated with declines in solar irradiance much like we are experiencing now with no human influence. “A global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions. The common view of Man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect.”

Informed scientists such as well-known meteorologist Joe Bastardi recognize that changing climate and fluctuating weather consequences are also heavily driven by naturally-changing ocean cycles. When both oceans were cold in the past, such as from 1940 to 1970, the climate cooled. The Pacific “flipped” back from a warm to a cold mode in 2008 and the Atlantic is likely to flip back in the next few years.

European and Far East winters look very similar now to those in the 1950s. Alaska has once again turned much colder, just as it did then when the Pacific temperatures cooled and sea ice expanded. We’re also seeing colder spring temperatures caused by a multi-decadal warming temperature shift in the Atlantic which has greatest influence in the late winter and spring, forcing what is called a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Have no doubt that climate changes, always has . . . always will . . . and for many natural reasons. Although young people in high school today are too young to have ever experienced global warming, our planet has witnessed two generally accepted periods of warming (and three of cooling) over the past 100 years.

The first one occurred between 1900 and 1945, and since CO2 levels were lower than now, they couldn’t have been the cause before 1950. The second warming period, following a slight cool-down, began in the late 1970s lasting until 1998, a strong Pacific Ocean El Niño year.

As Joe Bastardi observes, “Mother Nature is always searching for a balance she can never fully achieve because of the design of the system. We rotate around the Sun on an axis that tilts, with more land in the Northern Hemisphere than Southern Hemisphere. [Climate and] weather is a movie, so we have to keep an eye on what the director is up to.”

Despite all the man-made heated frenzy about a fossil-fueled global warming disaster, there’s mounting evidence that the three percent of total atmospheric CO2 we humans produce is at most a bit player on the stage of climactic scene changes.

More and more scientists are attributing leading roles to other actors, principally the sun and oceans. That ongoing play follows age-old scripts written, produced and directed by none other than that incomparable impresario, Mother Nature herself.

Larry Bell is a professor and endowed professor at the University of Houston, where he directs the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture and heads the graduate program in space architecture. He is author of “Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax,” and his professional aerospace work has been featured on the History Channel and the Discovery Channel-Canada. Read more of his reports — Click Here Now.

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Some highly-credentialed and well-informed scientists are predicting that global temperatures won’t just continue to remain flat as they have for the past 17 years, but that they will get much colder and stay that way for a very long time.
Monday, 30 December 2013 07:53 AM
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