Tags: Trump Administration | Hillary Clinton | hillary | sanders | polls

Hillary's Message Prevails Over Sanders'

By Sunday, 17 January 2016 07:20 PM Current | Bio | Archive

Question: Does Bernie Sanders have a "better message" vs. Hillary Clinton? Major media and certain Democrats who love Sanders say "yes," and have been saying so for a long time. What is the evidence from the latest public opinion surveys?

The opposite. Clinton has a far more effective and popular message among Democratic voters.
Sunday's Wall Street Journal headline:  "Hillary Clinton Widens Lead Over Bernie Sanders." "Though race is tight in Iowa and New Hampshire, new poll suggests strong advantage in later primaries [based on national survey between January 9-13 of 400 voters who say they will vote in a Democratic primary, this is a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9 percent]."

Results: 59 percent-34 percent (larger than 19-point gap in December).

"While losses [in Iowa and New Hampshire] would be a setback for Mrs. Clinton, the Journal/NBC News survey suggests she would retain strong advantages in the later primaries." Clinton owes her durable lead nationally to her strength with key subgroups in the Democratic primary electorate, including nonwhite, older and moderate-to-conservative primary voters." And she leads Donald Trump by +10 percent 51 percent - 41 percent. (Sanders leads by +15 percent, but that difference of 5 percent is within margin of error, meaning they poll the same statistically over Trump.)

Clinton leads nationally 65 percent-27 percent among women, statistical dead heat among younger voters, ages 18-49; 71 percent-27 percent among 50+ voters.

She leads 52 percent-39 percent among those who "change"; 77 percent-19 percent among voters who want "experience"; 54 percent-43 percent among "liberals" [Sanders is more "progressive" according to Bernie supporters who "feel the burn" — really?]

Later states after Iowa and New Hampshire — state-by-state latest RealClearPolitics average of last four weeks of all state polls results — Clinton leads by substantial double digits:
  • South Carolina: +40 percent [!!!!]
  • Nevada: +19.5
  • Massachusetts: + 20.5 [Sanders neighboring state!]
  • Minnesota: +36 [One of most liberal Democratic electorates in the nation]
  • North Carolina: +36
  • Oklahoma: +22
  • Louisiana: +35
  • Michigan: +13
  • Florida: +43 [!!!!]
  • Missouri: +28
  • Ohio: +19 [latest Quinnipiac poll in October]
This confirms, without any doubt, that as of now (things can change!), that Clinton has the more effective message and campaign for a substantial margin among Democratic voters vs. Sanders, despite media and many others who believe what they read stating exactly the opposite, especially in the last week.

This column appears first and weekly in The Hill and TheHill.com.

Lanny Davis is the principal in the Washington, D.C., law firm of Lanny J. Davis & Associates, which specializes in strategic crisis management. He served as President Clinton’s Special Counsel in 1996-98. Read more reports from Lanny Davis — Click Here Now.

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Clinton has a far more effective and popular message among Democratic voters.
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Sunday, 17 January 2016 07:20 PM
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