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Caution: Clinton Lost, But Obama Coalition Alive

Caution: Clinton Lost, But Obama Coalition Alive

U.S. President Barack Obama enters the Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House to deliver remarks on November 14, 2016, in Washington, D.C. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Monday, 14 November 2016 05:06 PM Current | Bio | Archive

I have had a chance to comb through the exit polls from November 8. I have already written about the Democrats’ dismal day, especially the performance of Hillary Clinton. But I want to now take a look at something that did not happen.

Despite the fact that the president and First Lady could not translate their own political capital into a victory for their very damaged would-be successor, the polling numbers reveal that the victory coalition that Mr. Obama has put together is still very much alive and well.

Before I get to the numbers, remember that Franklin D. Roosevelt’s two-generation New Deal coalition suffered through two Dwight D. Eisenhower terms and the two-generation Ronald Reagan coalition had to endure two terms of Bill Clinton.

First and foremost, Mr. Obama remains a popular figure with American voters. Of those who voted last week, 54 percent gave him a positive job rating. And more voters (31 percent) said they were better today than said they were worse off. Both the total number of voters (126 million) and the percentage of those eligible voters who actually cast a ballot (55.6 percent) for president dipped from 4 years ago — yet the percentage of that vote that was nonwhite continued its upward trajectory (30 percent, up from 28 percent in 2012 and 26 percent in 2008). The youngest voters — 18-29 years old — actually increased their percentage of the total. But the problem for the Democrats is that their candidate for president was a drag not only on the race for the White House but also on the their chances to regain control of the Senate (Democrats gained only 2 seats) or make a more significant dent in the GOP majority of the House (Democrats gained only 6 seats). Democrats needed a high turnout to offset a significant enthusiasm gap at the top of the ticket and they did not get it.

But the other problem is that Mrs. Clinton under-performed in almost every category where she needed both a turnout and positive margin over Mr. Trump. While a greater percentage of Hispanics turned out than ever before (11 percent), Mrs. Clinton won only 65 percent to Mr. Trump’s 29 percent — a six point decline from Mr. Obama’s performance in 2012 and a 2 point gain for Mr. Trump of Mitt Romney. Clinton dropped a full ten points among an increased percentage of Asian American voters (75 percent in 2012 down to 65 percent) and as the percentage of African American voters dropped from 13 to 12 percent, Clinton got 88 percent (compared with the 95 and 93 percent that Obama received in his bids). Among 18-29 year olds, Clinton won by a margin of only 54 percent to 37 percent — a drop of 7 points from Obama’s 61 percent in 2012).

Clinton lost among college educated voters (45 percent to Trump’s 49 percent) and got walloped among those voters without a college degree (28 percent to Trump’s 67 percent). She is the first Democrat to lose among Catholic voters (46 percent to Trump’s 51 percent) since Michael Dukakis in 1988. And while Obama received about 30 percent of the vote among Born Again/Evangelical voters, Clinton received only 16 percent.

In short, there were 6 million fewer voters from 2012, obviously reflecting distaste toward both candidates — but the percentages reflecting the Obama victory coalition were mainly up. Trump increased the GOP share of Protestants and white voters in general. But in the demographics and in the sentiments expressed in the exit polling, there is nothing to suggest that voters repudiated President Obama. Indeed, they bore out in many ways pre-election polling by both PPP and Bloomberg that Obama would have won this election by double digit.

It appears that President Obama is certainly capable of winning a majority when he is on the ballot but less able to do so when he is not — especially when the standard-bearer is a harder sell even to the base.

John Zogby, founder of the "Zogby Poll," is an internationally respected pollster, opinion leader, and best-selling author of the book "We Are Many, We Are One: Neo-Tribes and Tribal Analytics in 21st Century America." To read more of his reports, Go Here Now.

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JohnZogby
Despite the fact that the president and First Lady could not translate their own political capital into a victory for their very damaged would-be successor, the polling numbers reveal that the victory coalition that Mr. Obama has put together is still very much alive and well.
obama, clinton, trump, election, exit polls
705
2016-06-14
Monday, 14 November 2016 05:06 PM
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