Here is where the 2012 GOP presidential race is now. It is a three-way race: Romney-Cain-Newt.
All the other candidates are finished. Done. Over. Forget them. Don’t waste time even talking about them as they cannot win the nomination.
In fact, it isn’t even a sure shot that the big three can or will win the nomination either.
OK, let’s look at this race in some more depth:
1. Romney cannot grow his support. We have seen his act for six years; his supporters are there for him and no one else is buying what Mitt is selling. Ask yourselves this question: how can a man who gets about 20 percent of GOP voters to support him — against a very, very weak field — and cannot get any more — ever be the nominee of that political party?
2. The GOP is a southern/Bible Belt-based party; Romney is a northerner.
3. The GOP is heavily evangelical Christian; Romney is a Mormon. And many Evangelicals believe Mormonism is a “cult.”
4. Oh, yes, one other thing when it comes to Mormonism: in a Gallup survey last June, 22 percent of American voters said they would “never” vote for a Mormon. So, does the GOP want to begin a general election campaign against a very beatable President Barack Obama with a candidate who has one out of five voters off the table before the campaign even begins?
5. The tea party now dominates the GOP; Romney and the tea party have never seen eye to eye.
6. So, with all that baggage, pundits still somehow proclaim him the front-runner? Why exactly?
7. Let’s face it: He doesn’t fit the Republican Party of 2012!
8. The Cain fade has begun — especially among female voters. The multiple sexual harassment claims have bled female support away from Cain and he is now utterly un-electable in a general election.
In fact, a Cain-Obama election would give Obama the opportunity to win the biggest landslide in American history. Only conservative men would vote for Cain. All the rest — women, independents, and Democrats — would vote for another four years of Obama even if they have to hold their noses.
9. Newt — simply on the basis of the debates and the Perry and Cain self-destructions — is now the latest anti-Romney possibility.
10. However, Newt too is un-electable in a general election — although not quite as much so as Cain.
11. Newt’s three marriages, his decades-long hypocrisy — the latest being the $300,000 he got paid by Fannie Mae and then lied about — and his overall lack of self-discipline make him a terrible candidate, too.
So where does that leave the race?
With under two months until Iowa on Jan. 3, it is conceivable that the 2012 Republican presidential nominee is not yet in the race.
Yes, it is possible that Romney, as he did in 2008, falters coming out of the gate. Cain and Newt stumble along. And no one captures the hearts, or votes, of enough GOP primary voters to take off.
At that point — late winter/early spring — is it possible some new candidates come into the race?
Because 2012 is winnable. Obama can be defeated.
Just not by the current crop of second-raters running for the GOP nomination.
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