The media is full of biased polls released for only one reason: to discourage Trump donors and voters.
I have paid for an accurate poll by the top Republican polling organization: Public Opinion Research.
It was conducted Oct. 6-7 in the 17 battleground states among 1,000 likely voters.
Unlike the media polls, its results are accurately weighted at +1 Democrat (the exact result of exit polls in those states in the elections of '16 and '18).
It shows Biden ahead by five points.
But his lead is almost entirely of voters leaning to him. Among definitely decided voters, Biden is only one ahead.
Here is the results (in 17 battleground states, conducted by Public Opinion Research):
Definite Leaners Total
Biden 41 9 50
Trump 40 5 45
So Biden is hanging on by the skin of his teeth. Leaners are notoriously fickle and can — and often do — turn on a dime.
Of greater import, the survey finds the principal impact of the president's illness has been to elevate the virus to the number one issue in the country, relegating the economy to number two.
This is the exact opposite of the situation two weeks ago.
In my poll, 39% say the virus is the top issue while only 29% said it was the economy. Published polls taken two weeks ago showed the economy 14 points ahead of the virus.
Biden is seen as better in dealing with the virus by 12 percentage points while Trump is better on the economy by 8 points.
It is the elevation of the importance of the virus, not any mistake by Trump, that accounts for Biden's tenuous lead.
And these results come after Trump has had a tough week, to put it mildly.
If he is only 5 back, it shows his amazing strength.
The week began with The New York Times hit piece that conflated his pre-payment of taxes with a charge he avoided paying them.
Then came the debate where his over-aggressiveness was panned by the media and, combined with Biden's outrageous conduct calling the president of the United States a "clown," led to a plague-on-both-your-houses verdict by the voters.
Then he got sick and, rather than extend their sympathy like human beings, the media wrote he deserved to get sick because he did not wear a face mask.
And, as a result of his quarantine, he is unable to campaign or hold the rallies that are at the core of his political persona.
Finally, because of Biden's virtual monopoly of Silicon Valley money and 5:1 preponderance of Wall Street funding, he is being outspent on media in battleground states by 2:1.
If, after that, he is only five back, largely due to leaners, who can doubt that he can gain back that ground.
Here is what he needs to do:
- Address the nation as a virus-sufferer to emphasize the virus is not usually a death sentence — 97% survive — and to stress the importance of not cowering in fear in your basement, but the need to go back to work or school and resume your life. My poll showed 56% admire him for going back to work.
- Urge everyone to wear a face mask because of his personal experience in contracting the virus. My poll says 76% would support his decision if he said his personal experience with the virus has led him to wear a face mask and to urge others to do so.
- Slam House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., for blocking his proposal to send a $1200 check to every family and to prevent airline layoffs. Demand Biden endorse sending out the checks.
- By 34%-48%, voters oppose court packing. Our system of checks and balances is at stake. Trump needs to pound this issue.
- Emphasize it takes a tough man to run a country through a time of crisis. Explain, sometimes he does not have time to be polite and he does things his way, but gets them done.
- Get the focus back on the economy where he has a strong advantage.
Even with the race truncated into a three week sprint — with one debates left (perhaps another one virtual one resheduled) — there is plenty of time for Trump to come back and win!
John Jordan serves on the Hoover Institution Board of Overseers, and is a regular contributor for Fox News, Fox Business, and "The Alan Nathan Show." After graduating from Occidental College with a degree in Economics, John received his J.D. from Empire College School of Law and his MBA from the University of San Francisco and is a Member of the California Bar. John has also served as a Commissioned Officer in the United States Naval Reserve and is fluent in both German and Russian. A long time pilot, Mr. Jordan holds an Airline Transport Pilot Certificate with multiple Type Ratings and is a Certified Flight Instructor. During the day, John is the CEO of Jordan Vineyard & Winery. He shares his hillside home in Sonoma County, California, with his three rescue dogs. To read more of his reports — Click Here Now.
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