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Tags: Latin America | Polls | berkeley | emerson | polling | survey

Will Newsom Pay a Price for Blacks, Latinos Moving Away from Democrats?

california democratic governor gavin newsom

Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calf.,  during a news conference at Manny's on Aug. 13, 2021 in San Francisco, California. California Gov. Gavin Newsom kicked off his "Say No" to recall campaign as he prepares to face a recall election on Sept. 14. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

John Jordan By Tuesday, 24 August 2021 02:25 PM Current | Bio | Archive

An appreciably large majority of Black and Latino voters would almost prefer death by piranha, rather than openly support a Republican.

So deeply ingrained is the aversion to the GOP brand and pervasive the pressure to support Democrats up and down the ballot.

However, there's an old saying in sales: "You can’t go from 'No' to 'Yes' without passing through 'Maybe.'

Pundits enamored of the liberal dream of a permanent Democratic Majority made possible by the lockstep support of Black and Latino voters overlook the fact that the only constant in politics is change.

While often slow, change in the political landscape has a way of sneaking up on the pundit class and making them look very foolish.

The rickety ideological dam holding Black and Latino voters in "Lake Democrat" has sprung leaks since 2016; those leaks have grown considerably over the past five years.

In 2012 President Obama won the Black vote by 87 points; in 2016 Hillary Clinton won it by 81 points and President Biden’s margin among Black voters fell further — to 75 points.

Despite the summer unrest of 2020 and incessant accusations of racism President Donald Trump improved from 13% support of Black men in 2016 to 19% in 2020.

This  reflect a fifty% increase.

President Trump received more Black votes in 2020 than any GOP presidential candidate since 1980. President Trump’s increased funding of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU) and championing of the First Step Act reversing much of the hugely unpopular (with Black voters) Democrat 1990s era crime bill certainly helped.

'Blexit' became a phenomenon of the 2020 presidential campaign/election cycle; with a growing number of Black leaders, personalities, and celebrities publicly supporting or flirting with supporting President Trump.

The trends with Latino voters are even worse for Democrats.

President Trump increased his share of the Latino vote by 4% compared to 2016 while Biden underperformed Our Lady of the Pantsuit’s Latino support by 2% for a net swing of 6%. And the fall-off in Latino support for Democrats was not limited to Miami’s Cuban and Venezuelan expat communities.

President Trump did extremely well in communities in Texas whose voters are Mexican by heritage and live along the border.

Again, the math is dramatic. After four years of being called "racist," and "anti-Latino" by both Spanish language and the Corporate Media in the U.S. Trump grew his support among Texas Latinos from 34% in 2016 to 41% in 2020. Perhaps even more worrying to Democrats (especially in California) was Trump’s support in the Asian community.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton won the Asian vote by a 38 point margin with President Biden’s margin falling to 27 points in 2020.

The marquee race of the year is of course California’s gubernatorial recall election on Sept. 14. Polling by Emerson, Survey USA and UC Berkley all point to a continuation of discontent with the Democratic Party within the Black and Latino communities.

Emerson’s poll had 54% of Latino voters in California supporting recalling Gov. Gavin   Newsom, D-Calif., and an astonishing 41% of Black Californians also supporting the recall.

Survey USA’s August Survey was consistent in that it showed by 47% to 41% California Latinos supporting the recall. Governor Newsom’s fate will be determined by perceptions of how he's dealt (or not) with the coronavirus pandemic in The Golden State. Period. Stop.

Newsom’s apparent support of proof of vaccination to enter businesses; patronize restaurants, or even work is political malpractice in the extreme.

The media narrative that it is only white Republicans who are vaccine hesitant is just wrong. Only 38% of Black Californians are vaccinated and Newsom is telling 62% of his most reliable voters that they will be made second-class citizens because of their historically understandable unease with a government vaccine.

And a Democratic governor is doing this?

Wow. Just. Wow.

Whether the increase in GOP support by Black and Latino voters over the past few years becomes a dam-busting deluge remains to be seen; history tells us that once the perception that a political party is not serving the interests of the group begins to take hold it's almost impossible to reverse.

Sept. 14  promises to be very interesting indeed.

John Jordan, former Navy intelligence officer, pilot, attorney, international economist, overseer at Stanford's Hoover Institution and conservative political consultant. Jordan is a regular contributor for Fox News Channel, Newsmax, Sky News London and Sky News Australia. Read John Jordan's Reports More Here.

© 2021 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


JohnJordan
Whether the increase in GOP support by Black and Latino voters becomes a dam-busting deluge remains to be seen; history tells us that once the perception that a political party is not serving the interests of the group begins to take hold it's almost impossible to reverse.
berkeley, emerson, polling, survey
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2021-25-24
Tuesday, 24 August 2021 02:25 PM
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